May 14,2008:
Although peace talks are taking
place in Djibouti, the clan warfare continues in Mogadishu and throughout
southern Somalia. Although there are two coalitions, the Transitional National
Government (TNG) and the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), facing off, much of the
violence has nothing to do with national politics, or politics at all. Battles
are largely over water, land (for grazing or farming) and roads (for extorting
money from users). The most intense fighting is in Mogadishu, where the clans
that have long controlled this lucrative area, have been displaced by those
loyal to the TNG. Assisted by 3,000 Ethiopian troops, the new group has expelled
most of their opposition from the city, and several hundred thousand of these
civilians now live in new camps along the main road heading inland. Using these
camps as a base, gunmen sneak back into the city and make attacks. Everyone
knows that the next step is for TNG forces to attack the camps, and disperse
them. To try and avoid that, peace talks are under way. But given the history
of Somalia, peace is not always the preferred option. The ICU is restricted by
its radical factions, who are willing to be destroyed (along with their
families) in the cause of establishing a religious dictatorship in the region.
Any deal the ICU might make with the TNG may well result in a nasty civil war
within the ICU, to deal with the ICU radicals.
The
Ethiopians admitted that they have about
3,000 troops inside Somalia, and indicated that they have suffered about 800
casualties in 18 months of operations. That's one or two a day. Higher than
what the U.S. suffers in Iraq and Afghanistan, but not high enough to drive the
Ethiopians out of the country.
In the
wake of the May 1 missile attack that killed an al Qaeda leader, the ICU (which
denies being part of al Qaeda, but works closely with the terrorists) organized
a demonstration in Mogadishu. Several hundred people, mostly women and
children, shouted anti-U.S. slogans. The United States pays for most of the
food aid that manages to get past the pirates and bandits to feed starving
Somalis. There have been larger demonstrations against rising food prices. While
the foreign food aid is free, not enough of it can get past the pirates and
bandits to feed everyone, and many people depend on the local markets. There,
prices have gone up, as they have worldwide, because of higher demand and lower
production in several countries.
Ogaden
rebels in Ethiopia have threatened violence against the government of Puntland,
after Puntland apparently made a deal with Ethiopia. The new arrangement has
Puntland arresting, and turning over to Ethiopia any Ogaden rebels who seek
sanctuary in Puntland. In return, Ethiopia will provide weapons and training
for Puntland security forces. The Ogaden rebels are allied with the ICU, which
is hostile to the Puntland government. Recently, for example, Islamic militants
in Puntland tried to kill the last female TV news announcer in Puntland. The
ICU, like the Taliban, believe women should stay home, and are willing to kill
to make this happen.