May 14,2008:
Counterinsurgency so much
attention since the 1960's and the creation of the U.S. Army Special Warfare
Center. This renewed interest has
sparked fierce debate over the kind of war we are fighting: terrorism, irregular warfare or an
asymmetrical war. When we label a war a
counterinsurgency (COIN), by definition, it means that we are fully aware of
the type of insurgency we are fighting; do we really? With all the labels what kind of Insurgency
are we fighting?
My studies
of conventional war began with a healthy dose of Clausewitz, Jomini, Patton,
Guderian, Rommel and a host of other famous practitioners. After having served
my time in conventional units I volunteered for recon and
counterinsurgency and I was taught the "classics"; T.E. Lawrence, C.E. Callwell,
David Galula, and, Frank Kitson. As I progressed I became familiar with, Mao
Zedong, Che Guevara, Bernard Fall and Nguyen Giap.
The US
Army released its new counterinsurgency manual in Dec 2007. It is heavily
steeped in the theories of classical COIN, which places a heavy emphasis on
maximizing the legitimacy of the Host Government. Yet as a trainer and practitioner of COIN
attempting to implement the newest doctrine, something is amiss from the
classical approach from what is happening on the ground.
Classical
COIN is based on lessons learned between the 1940's and the 1970's. Most of these insurgencies were based on
either Nationalism or Anti-Colonialism or both. As a result, the strategies and
lessons learned focused on how an already established, legitimate, yet, weak
government could re-assert itself and maintain the status quo.
The COIN
we are experiencing in Afghanistan is not Nationalistic or Anti-Colonial. Insurgents today are operating in failed
states or states bordering between weak and failed. In classical COIN the
insurgent takes the initiative and initiates the campaign (Some examples
include: Algeria, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Columbia, Rhodesia). Over the last
couple of years Coalition forces or weak governments have initiated the
campaign and the insurgent is now in a position to be strategically reactive
(think Pakistan and Afghanistan).
Today the
paradox of modern COIN can be explained as: Classical insurgencies usually were
started to disrupt the status quo and to overthrow existing governments. The
insurgents had a strategy and a political agenda that was Nationalistic in its
nature. Modern insurgents are now attempting to preserve the status quo where a
weak government or foreign invaders represent revolutionary change. Today's
insurgent does not always seek to gain control of the State (Think Kurds, the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border area and the North West Federally Administered
Tribal Areas).
The modern
insurgent does not always want to secede from the State but rather control
portions of it; they could care less if the State collapses, as long as they
are in control of certain areas. Modern insurgents, unlike the Nationalists of
yore, really have not stipulated how and what would replace the existing
structure, or government, or, articulated a "National" Strategy. Even bin
Laden's alleged strategy is more akin to the structure of the leaders of the
Ottoman Empire, a strategy that espouses a loose ideology but no real substance
or plan on how to implement it, except thru individual acts of desperation
Suicide Bombers.
Consequently
COIN becomes very dynamic and very complex, especially when the insurgent
you're fighting only cares about curing God's favor through countless
individual acts with the hope of eventually gaining paradise and ultimate
victory.
So what do
we expect of our soldiers now? Each soldier is now a ""Strategic Corporal" and
requires greater patience and skill sets in a number of non-traditional
military subjects. The Insurgent is fighting a "resistance" type of war and
seeks to wear down the effort by constantly attacking soft targets. He thinks
that we will just leave if he can continue this tactic. Our countermeasures include fighting the
enemy strategy and not his ideology. Patrolling and raiding are still critical,
but, this tactic has required adjustment and we are finding that more snipers,
more observation posts and more surveillance must be increasingly incorporated
into the intelligence plan in order to pre-empt the suicide bombers
intentions.
Lastly, at
risk of sounding cliché, Intelligence is critical to operations, but,
intelligence preparation of the battlefield is also being modified to account
for the complex dynamics of modern insurgencies -- Terry Tucker