September 16, 2007:
The
country is at war, or, more correctly, at wars. There are many fronts. Most of
the fighting is being done by the Revolutionary Guards and the national police.
The regular armed forces are kept in their barracks, as the government does not
trust this conscript force, full of young men who are not very fond of the
religious dictatorship running the country. The Revolutionary Guards, or at
least the al Quds force (which specialize in supporting pro-Iranian terrorists
in foreign countries) is having a hard time in Iraq. With the collapse of al
Qaeda in Iraq (because the Sunni Arabs turned on them), U.S. troops are now
concentrating on Iranian supported groups. Coalition commando forces are
specifically looking to capture as many al Quds operatives as they can. As a
result of this, Iran has been pulling its al Quds people out of Iraq. Those
that have been captured so far have given up embarrassing and damaging
information.
In northern Iran, the war
against the Kurds is not going well. Before 2003, Iran was supporting pro-al
Qaeda Kurdish groups by providing sanctuary inside Iran, as well as weapons and
supplies. These Islamic radicals took control of some villages inside Iraq, but
were destroyed by Kurdish militiamen and American Special Forces. Then Kurdish
separatists groups began sneaking into Iran and recruiting Iranian Kurds who
were willing to fight. That problem has grown over the past four years, to the
point that there are several thousand
Revolutionary Guard troops, including artillery and some armored
vehicles, operating along the Iraq border. The Iranian artillery fires shells
at Kurdish villages in Iraq, and
Revolutionary Guard patrols often cross the border. But the Iranians
know they cannot get too aggressive. The Kurdish militias can handle Revolutionary Guard patrols, and the Iranians
have suffered dozens of casualties in these clashes over the Summer. The
Iranians also know that if they put too many people into Iraq, they will have
to deal with American smart bombs. While some
Revolutionary Guard commanders say otherwise, most Iranian military
leaders don't want to fight U.S. troops, especially not in largely Kurdish
areas along the Iraq border. Most of those Kurds would welcome an American
invasion, and the Iranian generals don't want to invite one. Even with that restraint,
the fighting over the last few months has left over 200 dead, and many more
wounded.
In the southwestern province
of Khuzestan, police executed three Iranian Arabs, who were accused of
terrorist bombings inside Iran. The Iranian Arabs are despised by ethnic
Iranians (an Indo-Aryan group, related to Indians and Europeans), and the
current generation of Iranian Arabs are fed up with the discrimination they
suffer. Their fathers fought bravely for Iran when Iran invaded in the 1980s,
and all the government gave in return was more abuse. There's more anger than
organization and violence. British agents are widely believed to be helping to
organize armed resistance, but there's no proof. Those rumors have been an
Iranian staple for over a century. But there are a lot of unhappy Arabs in
Khuzestan, and there is some violence.
In the southeast, there's a
lot of violence, and several hundred casualties a year. But it's more
crime-wave than war. It's all about drugs. Iran is a prime market, and transit
route, for heroin and opium from Afghanistan. Pushtun tribes in Afghanistan,
and Baluchi tribes in Iran, are getting rich from this trade, and the police,
reinforced by Revolutionary Guard units,
are fighting a losing battle against the well armed and motivated (by huge
amounts of cash) smugglers.
September 15, 2007: The
government is cracking down on trade unions. The economy is not doing well, and
unions are demanding changes. Union leaders are being arrested and sent to jail
for "acting against national security."
September 14, 2007: Iranian
240mm rockets have been found in Iraq. In Afghanistan, more Iranian weapons are
being shipped in. This is the work of the al Quds Force, a components of the
Revolutionary Guards, and controlled the most radical and ruthless elements of
the Iranian government.
September 9, 2007: One of the
major causes of low economic growth is the low price Iranians pay for oil
products. This leads to waste, and smuggling petroleum products to neighboring
countries that have much higher prices. But raising the domestic price of oil
based products would be very unpopular, and the government doesn't want to risk
triggering a popular uprising.
September 7, 2007: Taking a cue, and perhaps some detailed
advice, from China, Iran has convinced, or coerced, many Iranians studying at
Western universities, to do some spying. This involves collecting technical
secrets needed for weapons programs back home, or information on local Iranian
communities. These Iranian migrants are usually hostile to the religious
dictatorship back in Iran, and the Iranian government wants to keep an eye on
that. By knowing what these exiles are up to, and who they are, the government
can, for example, threaten to harm kin still in Iran, in order to shut up the
troublesome exiles. The same tactics can be used to get some of the exiles to
spy for Iran, but first you have to get information on who is out there, and
who is most vulnerable to those tactics.