by
Austin BayJuly 15, 2026
"Every time they make a deal, they break it. They don't want to die. People don't want to die." -- President Donald Trump on July 14, responding to a question asked Fox News' reporter Trey Yingst.
The "they" Yingst asked about are Iranian negotiators, who supposedly represent the remnant regime.
Now go back to the first sentence's "break it," then add the missing word: "but."
"But they don't want to die."
Iran's remnant regime leaders have seen two levels of higher leadership die in Israeli and American air strikes. What percentage of the "third echelon" have been killed? What percent of the remnants want to negotiate and what percent are Ayatollah regime diehards, the guys who will die before giving up the vision of nuclear-armed global Islamic revolution?
We don't know. However, bet the farm, ranch and Manhattan Island that Iran's still-breathing ad hoc leaders know the regime has been penetrated by U.S. and Israeli intelligence.
Even the most twisted regime fanatic knows somewhere in his reptile brain that he can be found and he can be killed.
But does that make any difference?
A month ago, I wrote a column arguing, "... Iran's ayatollah regime cannot change its behavior -- at least it can't change and remain the regime founded by the Ayatollah Khomeini. ... Religious and political fanatics -- especially privileged maniacs who have slaughtered their domestic opponents for 47 years -- eventually become so spoiled by their unchecked local power that they lose any sense of moral and political limitation."
The U.S. and Israeli militaries have "dealt Iran a huge military defeat. The remnant regime has no navy and no air force. (This increases regime vulnerability but also makes resupplying proxies more difficult.)"
Despite suffering military, economic and collateral material damage that could take three decades of moneymaking peace to repair and replace, enough Iranian remnant leaders believe they can hang on until a miracle occurs, a miracle that saves the regime. The resurrected regime can then revive its nuclear weapons program and proceed with its global Islamic revolution.
What are the miracles the fanatics bet on? Here are a speculative few fever dreams:
No. 1: Holy November. Democrats win big. Holy January 2027: Dems impeach Trump and convict him in the Senate. Trump is toppled. Holy February: JD Vance is impeached. Democrats revive the Obama administration's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a joke that fed Iran's nuclear weapons program. (Tehran also got at least $50 billion in cash and economic considerations.)
No. 2: Terror attacks close the Suez Canal. The regime sinks a score of oil supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz, then seeds the strait with mines. Coup de grace: An Iranian sea drone damages a U.S. aircraft carrier. Oil hits $150 a barrel. The U.S. economy goes into recession. Democrats impeach Trump.
No. 3: The China Oil Deal. Beijing invades Taiwan. The U.S. Navy vacates the Strait of Hormuz. As a thank-you, Iran guarantees China 30 million barrels of oil for 10 years -- for free. Democrats impeach Trump.
The scenarios are fantasies, but fanatics believe fantasies, especially fantasies fed by corrupt media personalities.
We know hardcore Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fanatics have ordered missile strikes on Arab Gulf states. Their loyal fighters fire on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on Arab neighbors and oil tankers generate media headlines. Crude oil prices spike worldwide.
Then the U.S. counterattacks.
This cycle could go on for months.
Trump says the Iranian deal-breakers don't want to die. How can he be sure? Does Washington have mind-reading intelligence?
I don't think so. But identifying and removing the diehards -- by arrest, air strike or special operations raid -- may be what it takes to forward diplomacy. My guess: The CIA and Mossad are looking for the fanatics who cling to fantasies.