August 9, 2026: Ukraine recently won a significant victory in the Black Sea. This took place in the Sea of Azov, an extension of the northeastern Black Sea. Last month, Russia assembled 38 tankers in the Sea of Azov near the damaged Kerch Strait bridge. Operating under international sanctions, the Russian shadow fleet tankers were attempting to deliver fuel to the remaining Russian bases on the Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian drones attacked these ships, and by the end of July, about 40 of these ships had been sunk or so damaged as to be unfit for service. The Ukrainian drones continue searching for Russian freighters, ships, and tankers, and by the end of the year, Russian ships will no longer operate in the Sea of Azov. That means little Russian commercial shipping will be able to operate in the Black Sea at all.

It was only two years ago that the Russian Black Sea Fleet was largely destroyed by Ukrainian airborne and naval drones, as well as land-based anti-ship missiles. About a third of Russian ships survived, and these took refuge 488 kilometers away in east coast Black Sea ports. The Black Sea Fleet remained there until Ukrainian drones came for all Russian shipping in the area. There were other problems with repairing damaged ships.

Since the 1990s, a Russian military modernization effort has been underway as the government has recognized the need to address rapidly aging military equipment. In many cases, these purchases were essential because new equipment and weapons purchases stopped, with a few exceptions such as ballistic missiles, during the 1990s. As a result, most of the armed forces were still using Cold War-era weapons and equipment manufactured in the 1970s and 80s. Fortunately, even older 1950s- and 60s-era equipment was not discarded after the armed forces shrank by 80 percent in the 1990s. Since Russian defense industries were never world-class, the Russian military was usually stuck with Cold War-era equipment that was not competitive with the newer generations of weapons and accessories that Western forces were receiving.

It was believed that, by the end of the 1990s, at least a third of the Cold War-era equipment would be replaced. In some categories, especially those requiring new technology, over 80 percent of the older equipment needed replacements. The government had been telling the military about these big plans, and when they didn’t deliver, morale suffered. This happened quickly in the Navy because officers and sailors had been told that money would be available to maintain more ships, allowing them to spend more time at sea. It turned out that existing ships couldn’t handle heavy use and workload because corruption crippled repair efforts. That meant there had to be either more new ships or expensive, extensive refurbishments of existing warships. After the 1990s, the air force resumed long-range air patrols over areas off the Russian coast, which had not seen Russian navy or air force activity since the 1980s. From 1991 until quite recently, Russian warships spent most of their time tied up at dock, meaning an entire generation of sailors lacked experience at sea.

The big problem so far is that the new equipment we have received is unimpressive. The troops can go online to find videos and technical specifications for many contemporary Western ships and equipment. The Russian equivalents rarely look good in comparison. But at least they aren’t stuck with aging Cold War-era equipment that rarely works.

The Russian armed forces have already come to grips with the fact that they will never return to the glory days of the Soviet Union, which dissolved in 1991. The army was called the Red Army back then, and the mighty Soviet naval force was known as the Red Fleet. During the Cold War, the armed forces had five times as many troops, over five million of them. Before 1991, the military received 10-20 percent of the national GDP, estimated at about two trillion dollars. No one is sure of the exact amount, as the communists were not big fans of accountants and accurate financial reporting. Currently, Russia is playing by Western European rules regarding military spending, with no more than 3-4 percent of GDP going to the military. With a $2.1 trillion economy that continues to grow, the generals and admirals can expect a lot more cash to work with. But most of this money went to replace Cold War-era weapons, which were considered outdated and of limited usefulness in the 21st century. At that point, the Ukraine War and widespread use of air, land, and naval drones emerged to change everything.