October 14, 2007:
Two
prominent Iraqi Shia leaders have agreed to stop fighting each other, and go
after the terrorists (both foreign and local Sunni and Shia radicals). Abdul
Aziz al Hakim, who commands the Badr Brigade, and Muqtada al Sadr, who controls
the Mahdi army, have made peace, for now. Both men have been using their
militias to try and become the most powerful Shia leader. Neither has
succeeded, The older Hakim has managed to stay on good terms with Iran, the
Americans and the Iraqi government, while Sadr has made the mistake of fighting
the Americans (and losing each time) and constantly feuding with the Iraqi
government. Sadr has called for the U.S. troops to leave immediately, while
Hakim wants them to stay for a while, to prevent the various militias (Shia,
Sunni and Kurdish, not to mention intrusive neighbors like Iran, Saudi Arabia
and Turkey) from tearing the country to pieces. Sadr is more of a populist, and
has the loyalty of many poor and uneducated Shia. Sadr is also something of an
Arab nationalist, meaning that Sadr backs Arabs against non-Arab Iran. Hakim
appeals to the middle and upper classes, and actually has more armed men to
call on. Hakim is all for Shia Islam taking over the world, under the
leadership of Iran.
The Badr Brigade fighters are
also more disciplined. Sadrs Mahdi Army is splitting up into factions, some of
them fighter each other, or not obeying Sadrs orders. Hakim is the head of the
United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the Shia coalition that control parliament and the
government. Sadr keeps threatening to withdraw the support of the 30
legislators he controls, but that still leaves the majority of the parliament
answering to Hakim.
Both Hakim and Sadr want to
establish a religious dictatorship, with themselves as the guy in charge. Most
Iraqis oppose this, especially the Sunni Arabs, who have gone from 20 percent
of the population in 2003, to about ten percent today. With the U.S. organizing
Sunni Arab militias and tribal alliances to destroy al Qaeda in Iraq, the two
Shia leaders see themselves losing much popularity if their militias
concentrate on fighting each other, instead of crushing the hated al Qaeda, and
other Sunni terrorists. Moreover, the fighting between the Badr Brigade and the
Mahdi army was getting uglier, with assassinations and gun battles in the
streets. These two radical Shia groups were losing popularity, and faced
government efforts to disarm them. That would lead to a civil war that both
Hakim and Sadr believed they would lose. So the bad behavior had to change, for
a while, anyway. The two men agreed to a six month truce, and a combined effort
against al Qaeda. The message here is that their civil war would resume when
conditions were more appropriate.