Attrition: Russians Gone Missing

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December 26, 2024: Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 has turned out to be a big mistake. So far nearly 800,000 soldiers have been killed, wounded or missing. Millions of 18-45 year old military age men have fled the country. That meant Russia was forced to take men as old as fifty or 60. All these losses created a labor shortage, with millions of jobs unfilled. That meant higher wages to attract scarce workers. This in turn led to high prices for consumers. There is also an in-progress collapse of the railway system that may result in economic collapse in 1-2 years and mass starvation in 3-4 years. That may somehow be avoided. If not, the losses will be immense and Russia may never recover.

Many who left the country were university educated, or skilled tradesmen. These refugees were either able to speak another language like English, German or Polish or were willing to learn one quickly. While Poland bordered Russia it was not receptive to Russian refugees. Poland has been invaded, partitioned and occupied many times in the last two centuries, and Russians were usually the aggressor. If a Russian seeks asylum in Poland the Poles often encourage moving on to more hospitable nations further west.

Migration, combat deaths and low reproduction rates are rapidly reducing the Russian population, which is currently about 145 million. It is expected to fall as low as 133 million by 2050. Russia conducted its first census in 1897. The population of what is now the Russian Federation was 125 million. That rose to about 136 million in 1920 but declined to 109 million in 1939.

Until 1991 Russia was part of the Soviet Union, which was formed from the ruins of the centuries-old Russian Empire in 2022. When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, the population was 286 million. About 51 percent of that belonged to the 147 million people of what is now the Russian Federation.

The declining number of Russians is not unique. All industrialized nations, with a few exceptions like the United States, are suffering population decline. The Americans avoid that because of continued legal and illegal immigration million. Currently the U.S. has 340 million people. By 2050 that is predicted to be 371 million.

 

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