January 13, 2025:
While Israel and Iran were once allies and trading partners, that changed 45 years ago when an Islamic revolution produced a religious dictatorship dedicated to the destruction of Israel. By 2025 Israeli air strikes had destroyed Iranian missile production facilities and Israeli air defenses have stopped several Iran attacks on Israel. This was a relief to Arab Gulf oil states, who were increasingly fearful of an Iranian attack on them. While Iranian offensive capabilities have been neutralized, they have not been eliminated. Iran can rebuild. There can be no peace in the Middle East as long as Iranian interference continues. That interference stems from Iranian internal problems as well as Iranian efforts to dominate the region.
One thing that holds Iran back is internal chaos. Since late 2017 Iran has suffered continuing internal violence against the religious dictatorship. There was similar activity in 2009 to protest the lack of fair elections. The 2009 protests were put down with force as were the recent ones, with over a thousand dead in 2009 and several hundred since then.
What started in late 2017 was different, with the protestors calling for the corrupt religious rulers to be removed. Some called for a return of the constitutional monarchy the religious leaders replaced in the 1980s. Back then democracy was promised but never delivered. Even more disturbing were protestors calling for Islam to be banned and replaced with something else, like Zoroastrianism, the ancient Persian religion that Islam replaced, violently and sometimes incompletely in the 7th and 8th centuries. Before the 2017 unrest the religious government saw itself on the way to some major victories in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. The optimism turned out to be premature.
The good times were supposed to begin in the wake of a July 2015 treaty with America lifting the many sanctions Iran had collected for bad behavior since the 1990s. That did not, as many financial experts pointed out, solve the immediate cash crises because oil prices were still low. This was because continued use of fracking in North America triggered a 70 percent drop in the price of oil in 2013. Iran made their situation worse by trying to avoid complying with the 2015 treaty while still getting most of the sanctions lifted and, for a while, that seemed to be working. This backfired when the U.S. accused Iran of violating the 2015 deal and, by the terms of that agreement, the American could and did withdraw. That meant many of the sanctions returned in 2018. Even before the American action, foreign economists believed the Iranian economy won’t get moving again for another decade. Now it is going to take even longer, and most Iranians were extremely angry about that. The 2017 protests continue, but more discreetly because of the threat of lethal retaliation. The senior clerics are worried and openly seeking a solution that does not include them losing power. Few Iranians are willing to accept that kind of compromise. The religious dictatorship is not only hated, but also seen as corrupt, incompetent, untrustworthy and willing to kill any Iranians that oppose them.
This has led to some odd acts of resistance. For example, in late 2022 a young woman was arrested by the lifestyle police and accused of not covering her hair properly with her hijab. While in custody the girl died, apparently from beatings. This led to months of protests. The government refused to change its hijab policy and the protests faded away in early 2023.
There are some more complications. Half the population consists of ethnic minorities, mainly Turks, Kurds, and Arabs, and some of these groups, including Arabs, Kurds and Baluchis, are getting more restive and violent, each for different reasons. The ruling Islamic conservatives are determined to support terrorism overseas and build nuclear weapons at home, rather than concentrating on improving the economy and living standards and addressing the corruption within their ranks.
Expensive efforts to aid pro-Iran groups in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon were presented as examples of the ancient Iranian empire being reborn. The government saw these foreign adventures as a way to distract an unhappy population. This ultimately had the opposite effect as Iranians realized their poverty was the result of all the billions spent on such overseas adventures.
At home the nuclear weapons project is still important because Iranian religious leaders have been increasingly vocal about how Iran should be the leader of the Islamic world and the guardian of the major Islamic shrines, especially Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia. Iranians believe having nuclear weapons would motivate the Arabs, and many others, to comply. The potential victims are not cooperating and some have retaliated. Israel destroyed Hezbollah while Saudi Arabia funded enough of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program to have first call on some of Pakistan’s several hundred nuclear weapons. The Arabs have been kicked around by the Iranians for thousands of years and take any Iranian threats seriously.
That led to a major reform effort in Saudi Arabia with a new generation of leaders willing to take on corruption and go with alliances that benefit the Saudis. This includes openly working with Israel to deal with the Iranian threat.
Twice in 2024 Iran attacked Israel directly. In April Iran fired over 350 rockets and missiles were launched at Israel from Iran and Iran-backed groups in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Most were intercepted and those that got through hit nothing of value. In October another large attack saw 200 missiles and cruise missiles launched from Iran towards Israel. None hit their targets and most were intercepted by Israeli, American and British air defense efforts. Israeli retaliation was more severe this time with air strikes on Iranian factories producing key components of rockets and missiles. It will take Iran several years to rebuild all those facilities, assuming that Israel does not keep attacking rebuilt factories.
The October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel received little active support from other Moslem nations, in part because Saudi Arabia opposed the Iran-backed Hamas violence. This offensive involved six thousand Hamas gunmen who advanced out of Gaza and fought to enter Israel. Hamas overran a sparsely populated portion of southern Israel but were halted before they could advance further. Hamas lost 1,800 killed or captured after killing 1,180 Israelis and foreigners. The surviving 4,000 Hamas personnel fled back to Gaza, pursued by Israeli troops. As of early 2025 fighting continues in Gaza as Israeli forces seek to kill or capture as many remaining Hamas members as they can. For the moment, remaining Hamas fighters have been trapped in Gaza and neutralized.
In late 2024, during several months of operations, Israel managed to virtually destroy Iran-backed Hezbollah. This is a Lebanese Shia faction which operates as a de facto government with a well-armed militia. The term Hezbollah means Party of God and they worked for Iran. Without Iranian support Hezbollah would fade away. That’s what happened in late 2024, when a series of attacks, beginning with exploding pagers in September killed or wounded over 3,000 Hezbollah members, That, along with precise Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah leaders, left Hezbollah leaderless and Israel’s subsequent ground invasion of part of Hezbollah’s territory shattered its ground forces.
There are still some remnants left. Hezbollah-run drug operations in eastern Lebanon are still operational. Hezbollah has long been active in the hashish and cocaine trade. The billions of dollars earned by drug operations is managed by a small number of Hezbollah members in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar. That money can be used to rebuild Hezbollah. America, European and most Persian Gulf nations want the Hezbollah treasury eliminated. That will be difficult to do. The Hezbollah money managers in Qatar have been dispensing and concealing their billions through late 2024 as the main Hezbollah organization in Lebanon was being taken apart.
Hezbollah can be reassembled by financing the revenge fantasies of the many Lebanese Shia that desire revenge. This became more difficult after the lightning early December campaign by a reorganized Islamic terrorist organization HTS, which quickly took control of Syria and sent the ruling Assad family into Russian exile. That means Hezbollah in Lebanon no longer has a land connection to Iran via Iraq and Syria. Iran was the primary supplier of weapons and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC technical advisors for Hezbollah. Growing popular unrest in Iran makes it difficult for the IRGC to spare manpower to help rebuild Hezbollah.
It is possible for the new Hezbollah leadership and their Iranian overlords to find ways to get the men, weapons and training together to rebuild Hezbollah. If left alone, that could take years. Israel and the many other nations hostile to Hezbollah will interfere with the rebuilding. Hezbollah will reappear, but it will not be as powerful or as expansive as its predecessor. For Hezbollah fans, it’s better than nothing.
In less than two years the Iranian investment in Hamas and Hezbollah has been destroyed, along with the Iranian ability to produce more missiles. The economic sanctions remain in place as does the growing unrest among Iranians against their religious dictatorship government.