October 14, 2007:
The
terrorist violence in Pakistan gets a lot of publicity, but isn�t doing a lot
damage in a country of 155 million people. So far this year, the violence has
killed about 2,000 people. About 48 percent of the dead have been terrorists
(including hundreds of foreign terrorists killed in feuds with tribesmen), and
34 percent have been civilians (often families of tribesmen fighting from
inside their compounds, which are those little �fortresses� you see all over
the tribal territories.) Not quite 20 percent of the dead were police and
soldiers. Still, the death toll for all of last year was 1,500 (terrorists 37
percent, civilians 41 percent and security forces 22 percent.) That was more
double the 2005 death toll of 650 (terrorists 21 percent, civilians 66 percent
and security forces 13 percent.) In 2004 there were 863 dead (terrorists 28
percent, civilians 50 percent and security forces 22 percent) and in 2003, 189
(terrorists 13 percent, civilians 74 percent and security forces 13 percent.)
Back in 2004, it was a pretty
normal year. There is always some violence in the tribal areas, and the more
populous areas near the Indian border are home to several murderous religious
and ethnic sects. The increase in violence after 2003 was a combination of the
Taliban getting reorganized, and the al Qaeda, who escaped Afghanistan two
years earlier, getting back into action. Early on, most of the dead were
civilians, and this eroded public support for the Islamic radicals doing the
killing. Thus most of the increase in dead have been among the terrorists.
That�s a losing trend for the tiny minority that carries out Islamic terrorism.