July 16, 2024: For its war in Ukraine Russia has mobilized forces from all over Russia. For example, aircraft at the complex of naval and air bases in northwestern Russia’s Kola Peninsula around Murmansk province regularly take off and fly south to launch long range missiles at targets in Ukraine. The distance from Murmansk to Ukraine is about 2,600 kilometers. The Russian Tu-22M3 bombers or MiG-31K fighter bombers can fly most of the distance and then release their long range air-to-ground missiles at targets in Ukraine. These flights are over Russian territory so there is no risk of losing aircraft for Ukrainian air defense systems.

Nearby Norway, Finland and Sweden are another story. These three nations are NATO members and all are upgrading their military facilities adjacent to Russian territory in Murmansk province. In this area the borders of Norway, Finland and Sweden are all adjacent to each other as well as Russia. The increased activity at Russian air, naval and land bases to support the Russian forces in Ukraine is very visible. The Russian Northern Fleet is based in this region and infantry units assigned to provide its security have disappeared since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russian ground forces suffered heavy losses and most of the Northern Fleet security forces were sent to Ukraine and most were killed or wounded. The departed Northern Fleet ground security force troops have not been replaced. The Northern Fleet had to improvise a security force from naval personnel and some local civilian watchmen. Norway, Finland and Sweden are not threatening Russian forces but are increasing air, land and naval forces based in the area. This means more F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime reconnaissance aircraft and ground based air defense systems like the Norwegian made NASAMS.

NATO forces fly air patrols off their coasts and send naval patrol vessels to coastal waters near Russia. All this surveillance of Russian operations around the Kola Peninsula is seen as assistance for Ukraine by local NATO members who provide military support for Ukraine.

The 41-ton MiG-31K fighter-bomber is a Cold War era aircraft produced from 1975 to 1994. About 500 were built and some were modified for long-range bombing missions. This K version was modified for long range missions and about a dozen of these are now involved in attacks on Ukrainian targets.

When the Ukraine War started in 2022, Russia had the second largest, after the United States, fleet of 123 heavy bombers. These included fifteen 275-ton Tu-160s, 66 126-ton Tu-22M3 and 42 propeller-driven 188-ton Tu-95MS. Russia used these bombers sparingly against Ukraine in 2022, despite the unique capabilities of these aircraft. All can carry lots of unguided bombs and are the only aircraft that can carry some models of anti-ship and cruise missiles as well as the few extremely heavy unguided bombs. There are two reasons for not using these bombers decisively, as in frequently, against Ukrainian forces. The main reason was money. There was less cash for the defense budget since 2014, when Ukraine sanctions began. Sanctions intensified in 2022. This meant less money to maintain heavy bombers, which cost up to $60,000 an hour to fly. There’s no money for major repairs and replacing a destroyed heavy bomber was not going to happen. Because of that Russia has not used the heavy bombers inside Ukraine except in a few instances when there were no nearby Ukrainian air defense systems.

Since the war began in 2022 Ukraine has managed to prevent Russia from gaining air supremacy. This was partly due to the Russian EW (Electronic Warfare) effort being less formidable than Ukraine expected. That means only Russian fighter-bombers operate over Ukraine, and not that frequently because they are often shot down and carry far fewer bombs than the heavies. If the heavies were used over Ukraine regularly there would be major damage done to Ukrainian military capabilities despite all the weapons sent by NATO nations.

While less capable than American heavy bombers, which have better defensive electronics and all the guided bombs and missiles they need, the Russian heavy bombers are remarkably capable because of upgrades and less frequent peace-time use.

The Tu-160 heavy bomber is roughly equivalent to the U.S. B-1. It is the most recent heavy bomber and was selected in 1977 as the answer to the American B-1A, which was still in development. The U.S. canceled its B-1A in 1977 because it was too expensive and work on the new B-2 stealth bomber was underway. In 1981, problems with the B-2 caused revival of the B-1 as the less expensive version with costly features removed. The result was the 216-ton B-1B model. A hundred of these were built and the last of these were supposed to be retired in 2024. The new B-21 is replacing the B-1B and that process is expected to take until 2036.

Russia has not been so quick to cancel heavy bomber projects and made that work by implementing regular upgrades whenever they could afford it. When the Cold War ended in 1991, the heavy bombers were an early victim of the diminished defense budget. Many heavy bombers were stationed in areas that became new nations belonged to those new nations. These bombers were not needed by their new owners and the ones still in Russia could not be maintained. Since the late 1990s Russia has been refurbishing their heavy bomber fleet. Priority was given to the Tu-160s, as these were able to carry a dozen of the new Kh-101 cruise missiles each, or lots of smart bombs. Entering service in 1984, the Tu-160 is the most modern bomber the Russians have. There are also 63 Tu-95MS strategic bombers, a 1950s design propjet, and 117 smaller Tu-22M3s developed in the 1970s. The Russians have not been able to upgrade their bombers as much as the U.S. has improved their 1950s era B-52s. The Russian bombers are expensive to operate, in part because the engines last less than a third as long as Western ones. The Russian heavies require larger crews. The Tu-160 had the same tortured, and expensive, development as the American B-1. Because of the expense, only 41 of 100 planned Tu-160s were built.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, 19 of those were in Ukraine, which took possession, but did nothing with them. Left outdoors, the Tu-160s rusted away, but in 2000 eight of the remaining Ukrainian Tu-160s, plus 600 missiles used by Tu-160s, were sent to Russia in payment for natural gas debts. Currently 15 of the original 36 Tu-160s remain in flying order. The rest are used for spare parts. The Tu-160 is a large, swing-wing aircraft. It weighs 275 tons and can carry up to 40 tons of bombs and missiles, but usually carries nine tons on missions of up to 14,000 kilometers. It has a crew of four and entered service in 1987.

Far more Tu-95s and Tu-22s were built during the Cold War and it was cheaper and easier to get more of these back into shape by the end of the 1990s. This was demonstrated in the Russian Far East where heavy bombers began to reappear. Russian air activity has grown enormously since 2017 after two years of declining sightings by Pacific coast neighbors. This is largely the result of more heavy bombers and maritime patrol aircraft being based on the Pacific Coast. Increased activity by American carrier task forces as well as South Korean and Japanese warships gave the Russian warplanes something to keep an eye on and they did. Russian aircraft incursions that trigger sending up jet fighters because foreign warplanes are coming too close to your air space were way up in this region. Japan is the most common target and at one-point annual Russian incursions surpassed China’s. The formation of a new heavy bomber division on the Pacific coast saw far more activity all over the western pacific by Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers. The Tu-160s were also active after 2007 but made longer flights over the Atlantic Ocean and the Russian Arctic. Some flights were also made to Cuba and Venezuela. These flights were highly publicized because Russia could not afford to make many of them.

All Russian heavies operated near or over Syria, launching guided missiles at ground targets. Tu-22M3s carried out some saturation bombing missions in Syria. In 2022 the heavies suffered their first combat losses. On October 7th two Tu-22M3s were destroyed by a Ukrainian weaponized UAV that attacked the Tu-22 base 220 kilometers north of Ukraine. Russia denied the loss but commercial satellite photos showed two damaged and burned-out Tu-22s. By 2024 Ukraine had used UAVs to attack more Russian air bases, some of them hundreds of kilometers inside Russia. These attacks have destroyed a growing number of Russian bombers, which is why bombers have been moved to more distant bases, like the ones on the Kola peninsulas near the Norwegian border.