October 14, 2025:
A ceasefire agreement in Thailand’s war with Cambodia went into effect on July 28. Despite this, minor outbreaks of violence continue. So far this year, Cambodia has suffered at least one hundred dead soldiers and civilians. Actual casualties may be several times higher. With all the shooting between soldiers and armed civilians, it is difficult to obtain accurate casualty figures. Thai forces, better trained, organized, and led, experience far fewer casualties. So far, Thailand has reported about 300 killed or wounded, mostly military personnel, with approximately fifty civilians killed or injured.
What triggered this year’s violence was a February incident when Thai soldiers entered Cambodia and ordered Cambodian tourists to stop singing the Cambodian national anthem at the Prasat Ta Muen Thom temple. In late May, Cambodian and Thai soldiers briefly exchanged fire, resulting in the death of one Cambodian soldier. Attempts to halt the fighting failed, and continued tensions led to the closure of border checkpoints. Talks between Thai and Cambodian officers took place on May 29. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet responded to the May 28 incident by seeking a ruling from the International Court of Justice (ICJ), stating that he did not want conflict with Thailand. Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said neither side wanted to escalate the conflict and that it had been resolved.
Fourteen years ago, fighting on the Cambodian border continued over a weekend. The action was not intense, mostly involving assault rifle fire. Local villagers reported hearing machine guns, artillery, or mortars. There were approximately twenty casualties. This was a sharp break from recent peace efforts. Three months ago, after two years of armed stalemate, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to reopen border crossings at the site of the ancient Preah Vihear Hindu temple on the border. The two countries have long disputed ownership of parts of the ancient site. In 1962, an international court declared the temple Cambodian, but Thailand continues to claim adjacent areas that Cambodians insist are part of the temple complex. Each side maintains about 3,000 troops near the temple, and there have been a few shooting incidents since 2008, though none were serious. The two countries have been negotiating the withdrawal of soldiers.
The most recent fighting damaged portions of the temple, which Cambodians occupied, and caused over 20,000 local civilians to flee the area. This dispute is one of many similar conflicts. The fundamental issue is that the current 730-kilometer-long border, defined in 1907 by the placement of only 73 border markers, leaves the exact border location open to interpretation. Occasionally, these interpretations clash, as is happening now. Neither side wants a full-scale war, even though Thailand has a larger and better-equipped military. In recent years, Cambodia doubled its annual military budget to $500 million. Thailand spends more than six times that amount and has done so for decades. Thailand has 300,000 troops, while Cambodia has only 100,000. However, Thailand faces distractions, including Muslim terrorists in the south, rebellious populists in the north, and unrest across the northwest border with Burma. The Preah Vihear temple is 340 kilometers east of the capital. The government believes that a major war with Cambodia would soon become unpopular and strengthen Thailand’s anti-army “red shirt” faction, potentially allowing them to take power.
The red shirt populists claim they have proof that the army planned a violent crackdown in 2010. This elicited surprise among military and police planners, who consider it standard to prepare plans for all imaginable contingencies. The attack on the red shirts last year was similar to the 1989 Chinese response to the massive demonstrations in Tiananmen Square.
The government has asked the army to be more flexible and effective in the south. Senior officials believe that Islamic radicals and Muslim gangsters are adapting their tactics more innovatively. The generals are being urged to be more creative and quicker to adapt. The military is asked, not ordered, because in Thailand, the generals wield significant political power and are not easily pushed around. The army believes its tactics are effective and that the Islamic terror groups are being gradually defeated.
Royalist yellow shirts continue to occupy Ratchadamnoen Road, a historic district in the capital, to pressure the government to take a more aggressive stance against Cambodia. The yellow shirts are also threatening to occupy key locations in the capital.
Earlier this year, Thai and Cambodian troops agreed to a ceasefire at the Preah Vihear temple. It lasted less than 24 hours. Elsewhere in the area, three policemen were killed, and five Buddhists were shot dead, apparently by Islamic terrorists seeking to drive all non-Muslim infidels out of the region.