August 30, 2007:
For most Thais, the violence
in the south is less important than the military and royalists seeking to
outlaw populist politicians and political parties. Since the country became a
constitutional monarchy over 70 years ago, reformers have wrestled with the Old
Guard over who had the right to make decisions. The Thais have done this
largely without violence, and largely because they have kings who are
respected, and opponents who are not trigger happy. The ballot box is used to
ultimately settle these disputes, but it takes time, and threatens the economic
prosperity of the last few decades. That bothers most Thais, more than a few
bloody minded Moslems down south. National elections, to select politicians to
replace the military dictatorship, are to be held on December 23rd.
Down south, the Islamic terrorists make themselves
more unpopular with continued attacks on schools. The attacks on non-Moslems
are less of an issue, unless the victim is a teacher. Most of the teachers are
Buddhists, because not enough Moslems go to college. Over sixty teachers have
been killed in the last three years, and hundreds driven from their jobs by
threats. About ten percent of schools in the south have been burned down, or
shut down by threats or lack of teachers. Parents are angry over this, because
they know that education is the only way their children have a chance of
participating in Thailand's economic boom. The Islamic radicals offer only
threats and vague promises of a new life under Islamic rule. Meanwhile,
the army and police have pierced the wall of silence surrounding the Islamic
militants, and put together data on who the terrorists are. Over 500 suspects
have been arrested, and 70 percent of them are still be held and
"re-educated." This is typically Thai, and to a Westerner appears to
be a form of government terrorism. But it's a cultural thing, common in East
Asia. In times past, such people would be held as hostages for the good
behavior of their families. Now, they get talked to for a few months and
released. It actually works in many cases. Meanwhile the rebels have let it be
known that they plan to terrorize the south for three to five more before they
enter negotiations. The terrorists want to kill ten times as many people, and
force the government to let them establish an Islamic state in the south. Since
the government is starting to take apart the rebel organization, it's unlikely
the Islamic terrorists will be around in three years. Thailand has dealt with
Moslem unrest in the south before. The mostly young rebels have ignored the
stories their elders tell, of what happened to past separatist movements.
Ignore the past, and you relive it.