July 1,
2008: The army believes it has killed
about 4,500 LTTE rebels during the first six months of the year, while losing
about one tenth that number. In the last three years, since the fighting
resumed, over 10,000 people have died (plus another 60,000 between 1983-2002). Since
the army went on the offensive two years ago, they have lost about 1,700 dead
and 4,000 wounded. The army believes they have killed or captured some 9,000
LTTE fighters in that period. Some of those captured were actually deserters,
who are a good source of info on what is happening in LTTE territory.
The
generals now believe the LTTE is in a death spiral, but still capable to doing
a lot of damage if the army gets sloppy. The LTTE maintain a reserve of a
hundred or more suicide bombers, plus several hundred trained and loyal commandos.
So the deliberate, carefully planned
attacks on LTTE bunkers continues, capturing a few square kilometers of LTTE
territory a week. In this way, the army now believes it will take about a year
to recapture all the LTTE controlled territory in the north and shatter (but
not totally destroy) the LTTE. The government assumes that the LTTE will
continue as a terrorist organization, trying to maintain bases among radical
Tamils living in southern India (where Tamils have lived for thousands of
years).
Because
the rebels have ruled these northern areas
of Sri Lanka for some two decades, they are well organized to defend it. But
more and more of the civilians living there (about 400,000 Tamils) are sneaking
away, and into government controlled territory. Apparently the LTTE has
mobilized everyone and everything for what appears to be a "last stand." Most
of the Tamils in the north don't want to be part of that, but opposing the LTTE
can get you killed. So those who can, are fleeing. Because of this aggressive recruiting
(usually, men and women are just conscripted), the LTTE still have about 5,000
people under arms. But most are poorly trained, led largely via threats to themselves
and their families and suffering from low morale. There is little ammo, because
of the navy blockade and the destruction of most of the LTTE boats. The
government artillery and air force are finding more targets, thanks to the
interrogation of captured or deserted LTTE
fighters, and the long range army patrols inside LTTE territory.
By
containing the LTTE to a small portion of the northern coast, the rest of the
country has prospered. GDP was up 6.8 percent last year, and is headed for a seven
percent increase this year.
June 23,
2008: After months of effort, the
government finally got the LTTE television channel, Tharisanam Television,
taken off a European satellite. The government expects the propaganda and
funding raising program to show up via another satellite. There are so many
satellite channels out there, and so many of them specializing in ethnic
programming, that it's difficult to let everyone know that outfits like Tharisanam
Television are just there to support, and raise money for, a bunch of
terrorists.