January 17, 2008:
Military operations
against the LTTE in the north are increasing. The hundreds of kilometers of "front
line" separating LTTE controlled terrain along the coast in the north, and the
rest of the island, is defended by groups of bunkers. Here, a few dozen, to
over a hundred LTTE fighters live and, if attacked, fight. The army is taking
advantage of low LTTE morale, and the recent infusion of more teenagers, and
conscripted adults, into the ranks. This has lowered the combat capabilities of
the LTTE, because the new "troops" make mistakes, freeze, or try to run away. The
army is finding that it can attack these bunker complexes, and after a few
hours, or few days, of firing bullets and shells at the defenders, the bunkers
can be captured. The defenders surrender, run away or get killed to the point
where there are so few defenders that soldiers can get close, and finish the
defenders off, or force them to give up. The LTTE has to fall back,
surrendering control of a kilometer or so of territory. The army is nibbling
the LTTE to death.
Some 10-20 fighters and soldiers are
dying each day, most of them LTTE. Total casualties are over a thousand a
month, and the LTTE is losing over 500 fighters a month to death, capture,
serious wounds, disease and desertion. Army tactics stress keeping friendly
casualties down, and this appears to be working. This approach improves soldier
morale, and builds confidence with each LTTE bunker captured.
The army believes that the LTTE will be
defeated by the end of the year. Cut off from ammo and weapons supplies, and suffering
low morale, has made the enemy incapable of making large scale offensives that
crippled army operations before the 2002 ceasefire. The LTTE still has thousand or so highly effective fighters, but
these are largely in the elite terrorist units, or actually leading LTTE
fighters at all levels (acting as NCOs and lower-grade officers). Total LTTE armed strength is believed to be
less than 5,000. In the last two years, the LTTE have lost nearly 4,000
fighters. The Tamil population has turned against the LTTE, so recruiting is
very difficult.
The air force is getting better at
ferreting out where the LTTE is on the ground. Years of studying aerial photos
and electronic intercepts have paid off, with experienced air force analysts
finding more and more camouflaged LTTE bases, and bombing them. This recently
led to the bombing of an LTTE leadership meeting, which killed or injured
several of their military leaders. Meanwhile, India has admitted an open
secret; that the Indian and Sri Lankan navies have been cooperating more to
catch LTTE arms smugglers.
January 16, 2008: In eastern Sri Lanka, a roadside bomb hit a
bus full of school children, killing nearly 30 passengers. While the LTTE lost
control of the east coast last year, several hundred LTTE followers are still
hiding out there, and some of them are committing violent acts. This was one of
them, and it backfired on the rebels. Killing kids is bad for the image.
January 12, 2008: The government
rejected an LTTE offer to revive the 2002 ceasefire deal. The government
believes the LTTE is doing this only because they are losing. The LTTE broke
the ceasefire two years ago, when it was apparent that the government would not
allow partition of the island. Then the LTTE had its own civil war, that led to
the loss of east coast areas long controlled by the LTTE.
January 10, 2008: In southern India,
police have broken up more LTTE weapons smuggling gangs. While most guns and
ammo come from gunrunners in third countries, India has long been a source of
explosives and detonators for bombs. These can be bought or stolen from
construction companies, and smuggled into Sri Lanka. But now the navy makes the
boat ride very risky, and Indian police are arresting most of the men bringing
the bomb making material to the boats. The LTTE forces are suffering an ammo
shortage in Sri Lanka, and it's not going to get better any time soon.
January 9, 2008: An the road to the air
port outside the capital, a roadside bomb killed the Minister for Nation
Building. Another bomb exploded near a major hotel in the capital, but no one
was injured.