July 13, 2024: Islamic terrorist group Al Shabab continues to be a major problem. This was seen in March when Al Shabab gunmen conducted an overnight siege of a hotel near the Presidential Palace. There has been sufficient peace and prosperity for Somalia to conduct national elections. Previously, Somali factions relied on a system that involved clan elders meeting and working out agreements. For a long tine Somalia was considered a failed state. Yet over a decade of peacekeeping, massive foreign aid produced visible progress against the corruption and tribalism that long prevented economic progress.

Al Shabaab, a local Islamic radical group, was defeated and driven from cities and towns in 2011 but was still around. So was the traditional clan violence, organized crime, and banditry. All these are ancient Somali traditions. Al Shabaab survives by reverting to that and becoming the major criminal organization in some parts of the country. Extortion, smuggling, and kidnapping for ransom have sustained the Islamic terror group. As government forces brought order to more of the country, Al Shabab has less income to spend on sustaining its forces.

One of the most lucrative sources of plunder was the elected Somali government, propped up by foreign aid, that showed up after 2012. Much of the foreign aid was stolen but enough went to where it was needed to make a difference. Despite all that Somalia is still a failed state that defies every attempt at nation building. The situation is worse than it appears because Somalia was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over economic issues (land and water). The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in sight. There is not a lot of enthusiasm among local leaders for a national government, but all that foreign aid is welcome because it can be taken without risking another clan feud. Somali smolders as it always has and despite that, there is progress.

Somalia still has problems with poverty and establishing law and order throughout the country. Many parts of the country have weak economies, a lot of poverty and the resulting hunger among people who cannot buy enough to eat. The persistent unrest, civil war and lawlessness since the 1990s has reduced local food production by about half. This meant that millions of Somalis survive only because of food aid donated by western nations, particularly the United States. Donor nations try to monitor distribution of donated food and are discouraged from continuing aid if they see too much of the aid diverted by Al Shabab, bandits and corrupt government officials. Somalia became independent in 1991 but the new government did not survive and by the late 90s the country was increasingly chaotic.

The Somali government is trying to slow down the withdrawal of AU (African Union) peacekeepers. Since 2022 the AU has been reducing the number of peacekeepers in Somalia. Originally it was nearly 18,000 soldiers, including some police and administrative personnel. Currently, only about a third of the peacekeepers are left and Somalia does not want to lose all of them because the peacekeepers are more effective at maintaining order than the local forces. The Somali army is supposed to have 32,000 trained and disciplined troops. That objective has never been met, despite over $100 million a year in foreign aid administered by donor nations to train and equip Somali troops. The key problem has been establishing a force of trained and responsible officers to run the army. Currently, too many officers can be bribed or threatened to ignore their duties so that rebels or bandits can continue operating.

Meanwhile there were disputes with neighboring Ethiopia over accusations that Ethiopia was attempting to annex Somali territory. Ethiopia was a larger nation with an effective military. Ethiopia also had its own internal problems and was still subject to occasional internal disputes. That did not stop the Ethiopian government from punishing Somalia for real or imagined transgressions.

One item that angered land-locked Ethiopia was the return of Somali piracy. From 2006 to 2012 Somali pirates were seizing passing merchant ships and holding them for ransom. Pirates became a major problem after 2006 and, as piracy increased, the major trading nations launched a counter-piracy effort which by 2012 reduced pirate success considerably. In fact, no large ships have been captured since early 2012 even though some of the pirate gangs are still operating up there. There were not many pirate groups left because of the lack of multi-million dollar ransoms. That changed in 2024 when Iran-backed Yemen rebels opened fire on ships headed north to the Suez Canal. Somalis on the other side of the Red Sea saw an opportunity and joined in the attacks. The Somalis did not want to damage or sink ships, they wanted to get on board and force the crew to move to a Somali port, prop anchor and await the payment of ransom. As was the Somali custom, most of the crew was taken ashore and held under guard. Any attempt to retake the ship by force meant the crew ashore would be killed and Somalis on the ship would set fires or even use explosives to disable or sink the merchant ship. Trading nations sent warships to deal with the Yemen rebels as well as the Somali pirates. This was to prevent the Red Sea from becoming a no-go zone for merchant shipping. That would mean ships could not use the Suez canal and would instead take the long way around Africa. This takes weeks longer and cost a million dollars or more per ship in fuel and crew salaries.