June 28, 2023: North Korea supported Russian leader Vladimir Putin during the recent incident where Wagner Group forces advanced on Moscow. Many Russians are less supportive of their leader, who got them involved in a war inside Ukraine. Russian troops are not doing well and the heavy economic sanctions imposed on Russia have been felt by most Russians.

South Korea opposed the Russian invasion and attracted buyers from NATO nations supporting Ukraine. The NATO members sent many of their weapons to Ukraine and wanted replacements faster than European manufacturers could get it done. South Korea has been producing modern weapons since the 1990s. First this was for their own use, but then the high quality and low prices of the South Korean equipment became known. The result was more than $10 billion spent on South Korean weapons by NATO member Poland. This included a thousand K2 (an improved M1) tanks and a more flexible version of the American HIMARS system. The sale was contingent on those South Korea weapons not being used in Ukraine. Poland compiled and sent all its older Russia designed gear to Ukraine, where the Ukrainians appreciated it and were familiar with it. South Korea would have liked to see their weapons get some combat experience, but that would have angered nearby Russia.

Russia sent North Korea 1,280 tons of wheat flour in April, in an effort to help avert famine deaths and to pay for 300,000 rounds of 152mm artillery ammunition. Russia has a small border with North Korea and a railroad line links the two countries. Earlier in 2023 Russia sent 2,800 tons of corn to North Korea.

Preparing for Local Threats

Aggressive Chinese behavior against all its neighbors continues, with the Philippines most frequently the target. For over a decade China has aggressively sought to take control of the South China Sea, a policy opposed by most nations worldwide. The resistance is most tangible with the military alliance that has formed to support the Philippines from Chinese threats and physical attacks. This alliance now includes major local military powers like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and Vietnam. More distant nations like the United States and Britain also back this alliance. Officially, China is not intimidated by this alliance and still undertakes aggressive activity in the South China Sea while never physically attacking anyone, which is passive-aggressive diplomacy at its most obvious.

South Korea has become a major military power in the region. You can see this in terms of how much nations operating in the region spend on defense. In 2021 the United States spent 3.7 percent of GDP on defense while North Korea spent about a quarter of GDP on the military but has a GDP that is only about five percent the size of South Korea’s. South Korea spent 2.8 percent of GDP on defense while Britain spent 2.2 percent, France 2.1 percent and Russia 4.3 percent. Elsewhere in the world Saudi Arabia spent 8.4 percent, Israel 5.6 percent, India 2.9 percent, Australia 2.1 percent and China somewhere between two and three percent. Global defense spending is about two trillion dollars and 2.4 percent of global GDP. U.S. spending accounts for 39 percent of that, which is equal to the next fourteen nations combined.

June 26, 2023: South Korea sought out women in the navy to take submarine training. Normally, women don’t serve on subs, but the two new 3,000 ton subs are larger and need larger crews. Two female naval officers and seven chiefs are now training for submarine service. The new subs are designed for long voyages lasting weeks or months. That does not appeal to many career male sailors, thus the crew shortage for the new boats. The larger subs have space to provide separate quarters for the female crew members.

June 25, 2023: South Korea revealed that they had retrieved a North Korean satellite from the wreckage of the North Korean SLV (satellite launch vehicle) rocket that failed after launch and fell into the Yellow Sea. South Korea was first to locate the SLV and to recover the last stage and the North Korean surveillance satellite, which was largely intact. This will provide details of North Korea satellite manufacturing capabilities.

June 24, 2023: During 2022 China increased its nuclear warhead inventory by 15 percent. At 410 warheads, China has the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world, behind Russia’s 4,489 warheads (including 12 added in 2022) and America's 3,708. The remaining nuclear powers have smaller warhead inventories. France has 290, Britain 225, Pakistan 170 (five added in 2022), India 164 (four added in 2022) Israel 90 and North Korea 30 (five added in 2022).

Recent nuclear powers, like North Korea, India and Pakistan, not only have fewer warheads but also less reliable ones. Because of intense international scrutiny, the reliability and effectiveness of North Korean nuclear weapons is much scrutinized. It is unclear if North Korea even has reliable nuclear warheads because they only recently developed working nuclear weapons. Turning these nukes into reliable weapons for ballistic missiles is another chore and it is unclear how effective the North Korean nuclear warheads are.

June 21, 2023: South Korea has ordered a second batch of its Baekho mobile command post vehicles that uses a K808 8x8 armored vehicle to carry the command personnel and the large array of radio, sensors and computers they use to assess the situation and issue orders. The first batch was delivered earlier this year to a South Korean field testing unit called the Tiger brigade. This unit provided realistic testing for new military equipment. Apparently Baekho passed the tests, although the second batch of Baekho vehicles will have a few enhancements the first ones lacked.

June 16, 2023: In South Korea, an American nuclear submarine, the SSGN Michigan, arrived to show support for South Korea against northern threats. This is a particularly formidable threat to North Korea because the SSGN carries over 150 cruise missiles. The U.S. converted four SSBNs, but not for intelligence work. The U.S. has four Ohio class SSGNs are SSBNs (nuclear subs armed with ballistic missiles) that were converted to carry cruise missiles and thus become SSGN submarines. The first of these conversions entered service in 2006. Each of these Ohio class boats now carries cruise missiles as well as many as 66 commandos (usually SEALs) and their equipment.

These SSGNs were created because they can carry and launch 154 highly accurate cruise missiles, and do so after traveling underwater, ignoring weather, or observation, at a speed of over 1,200 kilometers a day to a far off hotspot. The ability to carry a large force of commandos as well was also attractive. In one sub you have your choice of hammer or scalpel. More capable cruise missiles are in the works as well. Whether or not this multi-billion dollar investment will pay off remains to be seen, but it certainly worked off Libya.

The SSGNs are carrying a new version of Tomahawk, the RGM-109E Block IV Surface Ship Vertical Launched Tomahawk Land Attack Missile. Each of these weighs 1.2 tons, has a range of 1,600 kilometers and travels at 600-900 kilometers an hour. Flying at an altitude of 17-32 meters (50-100 feet), they will hit within 10 meters (32 feet) of their aim point. The Block IV Tomahawk can be reprogrammed in flight to hit another target and carry a vidcam to allow a missile to check on prospective targets.

In early 2011 the USS Florida, one of the American SSGNs, fired its Tomahawk TLAM-E cruise missiles in combat for the first time off Libya. Most of the hundred or so Tomahawks launched that day were fired by the Ohio. This was not the first-time nuclear subs have fired cruise missiles in wartime as U.S. SSNs have fired Tomahawks several times. But the Ohio class SSGNs carry 154 cruise missiles, more than ten times the number carried by some SSNs.

June 15, 2023: North Korea fired another two ballistic missiles from a base near the capital Pyongyang. The short-range missiles landed several hundred kilometers from the east coast. North Korea called this a test. No other country in the world launches so many missiles for “testing”. The real reason for so many launches is intimidation and, to a lesser extent, to launch older missiles before they deteriorate to the point where they can’t be used. South Korea and Japan have increased their defense spending and South Korea announced it will develop nuclear weapons to be used with their recently introduced cruise and ballistic missiles that can reach any target in North Korea. The North Korean intimidation effort has failed and led the intended victims to resist. This is a serious problem for North Korea, which has a much smaller economy than South Korea. To put that into perspective, the per-capita (national income per person) income in South Korea is more than twenty times what it is in North Korea and that unfavorable ratio is getting worse.

June 10, 2023: In North Korea (Ryanggang province) ordered dozens of homes demolished. These were on the bank of the Yalu River that serves as the border with China. The government said they were going to build a road along the river and that new homes would be built for residents of demolished homes.

May 31, 2023: A North Korean SLV (satellite launch vehicle) rocket failed in its attempt to put a surveillance satellite into orbit. The SLV and its cargo fell into the Yellow Sea, where Chinese and South Korean recovery ships sought to locate the rocket and its satellite.

May 28, 2023: The North Korean armed forces have lots of other, and older, problems. While nearly every adult male serves at least six years in the military, the big problem is that years of economic problems and failed harvests have left the troops poorly equipped, often hungry and increasingly insubordinate. With most of the best educated troops bribing their way into any job but one in a combat unit, it is increasingly doubtful if the North Korean combat forces could get very far during an invasion of South Korea. Despite all that, a lot of North Korean troops are believed to be reliable enough to carry out orders to invade South Korea, for a while at least, and that could end up doing a lot of damage to Seoul, the southern capital where half the population and a quarter of the GDP are. South Koreans have more to lose than the northerners. Sprawling Seoul is 40-50 kilometers from the North Korean border. The city alone is 600 square kilometers, and the suburbs are even larger. There are over 17,000 people per square kilometer (45,000 per square mile) in the city. The southerners know the north is desperate and heavily armed. What do you do? South Korea has responded by increasing its ability to quickly halt any rocket and artillery bombardment from the north. This would involve a lot of artillery and smart bomb use in a short time. Many North Korean targets would be destroyed but the south has much more to lose, even if the northern attack is cut short.

The North Korean Army currently has about 800,000 troops, over 3,000 tanks, 3,000 other AFV and nearly 8,000 artillery pieces, including 2,000 rocket launchers. Most of these weapons are pointed south and stationed on or near the DMZ. North Korea has the means to be dangerous, for a little while anyway. Fuel shortages, elderly equipment and lack of maintenance means that a lot of this gear would not stay operational for long, if at all. As an example, the past 25 years or so of deferred maintenance (as in none) on tube artillery pieces, including the guns on tanks, means almost all of those can only fire one round because their recuperator seals have deteriorated so much.

North Korea has two armored divisions, 12 motorized infantry and 23 non motorized infantry divisions used only for static defense along the DMZ. These troops also serve as border guards to prevent civilians or soldiers from leaving the country via the DMZ. A growing number of North Korean troops stationed on the DMZ are deserting via the DMZ. There are supposed to be lots of landmines in the DMZ but many have been removed or otherwise become inoperable over the years and not replaced. This was noticed as more North Korean soldiers came across the DMZ at night and often had to find a South Korean military border post or civilian home further south so they could announce they were defecting. When this started happening several years ago it became a scandal because the DMZ was supposed to be well guarded.

Most of the best educated North Korean troops are in the rear areas, where their parents, bribes and instinct for self-preservation put them. The troops along the DMZ know this and are expected to lose some of their enthusiasm as a result. A growing number of North Korean refugees arriving in South Korea, who served along the northern side of the DMZ, confirm all this. They also confirm that the growing culture of corruption in the military leadership and bureaucracy is seeing more and more of the food and fuel meant for front line troops diverted by corrupt officers and sold in the markets. No wonder so many parents are willing to pay bribes to make sure their kids never get assigned to one of those units.

North Korean men and women who are conscripted to serve terms ranging from five to 13 years. Women serve as little as five years. Men serve seven to ten years in non-combat units while those assigned to the SRF (Strategic Rocket Forces) serve 13 years. About 90 percent of SRF personnel are officers and often career officers. Enlisted personnel serve 13 years. The SRF is elite force and personnel have better living and working conditions.