December 10,2008:
Although violence is still down
sharply (about 80 percent) from its peaks in 2006-7, there are still several suicide bombing gangs operating. Last month,
there were 340 Iraqis (and eight U.S. troops) killed by terrorist violence,
compared to 317 in October. The perpetrators are being sought.
A more
serious problem for Iraq is the falling price of oil. It nearly hit $150 a barrel
last Summer, and is now headed below $40 because of the global recession. Oil
revenue is the government's main source of income, which has been adjusted
downward over the last few months, to match the falling price Iraq's oil can be
sold for. Iraq has nearly thirty years of infrastructure to build, rebuild and
repair. Saddam diverted nearly all such spending to military and personal uses
after 1979, and his supporters used terror to halt most reconstruction until
last year. To add to the country's problems, there's a serious drought, and
pressure from international lending agencies to reduce civil service salaries, and
impose similar efficiencies throughout the government, if Iraq wants access to
the massive credit it needs to build major infrastructure projects. But despite the economic problems, this is the
first year since 2003 that people felt safe enough to travel for the Eid
(similar to Christmas in terms of partying) holidays. The traffic jams are
growing in their size and duration, but there simply aren't enough terrorists available
to take advantage of such a target rich environment. Perhaps the best indicator
of improvement can be seen in the real estate market, where prices have doubled
in most neighborhoods over the last year. Despite the corruption and crime, the
economy is booming.
Britain will
start withdrawing its forces in three months, a process that will reduce
British troops strength in southern Iraq from 4,000 to 400 by early 2009. By
the end of next year, U.S. troops are to withdraw to bases outside the cities,
and only be used for emergencies. The war is over, and it's now up to the
Iraqis to determine if they can govern themselves effectively. It's been half a
century since the Iraqi military overthrew the constitutional monarchy that had
tried, for a quarter of a century, to resolve all Iraqis ethnic and religious
differences. Since then, half a century of dictators and terrorists couldn't do
it. Can a democracy? No one knows.
December 9,
2008: Ten Sunni Arab terrorism suspects were arrested in Baghdad and Fallujah
by Iraqi security forces. With the recent
arrests of key terrorists in Baghdad, Fallujah and Basra, Iraqi and American counter-terror
experts believe they will see a further decline in terrorist violence. There
are still believed to be two or three major terror gangs out there, capable to
carrying out several suicide bombing attacks a month. But the police are on to
these outfits, something made possible by the crushing of major Sunni and Shia
terror organizations in the last year. The terrorists can still kill, but they
can no longer keep the police out of entire towns or neighborhoods. The cops
can go where they want, and more Iraqis feel safe in providing tips to the
police. U.S. military counter-terror databases are proving useful to the Iraqi
police, because many of the terrorists they are pursuing are known to the Americans
as some of the "usual suspects" that U.S. troops have arrested, or
identified, over the last five years.
December 8,
2008: U.S. troops captured four members of Iran backed Shia terror group Kataib
Hezbollah. The four were caught in Basra, the southern oil town that has long
been a base for pro-Iran Shia terrorists. Kataib Hezbollah is believed responsible
for some of the recent terrorist bombing directed at Iraqi security forces.
December 7,
2008: Kurdish PKK separatists, in an effort to get Turkish bombing and ground attacks
to stop against bases in northern Iraq, declared a unilateral nine day truce
for the Moslem holiday of Eid. The Turks are on a roll against the PKK and are
not likely to reciprocate.