June 6, 2007:
A major problem in Iraq is that there are two, quite different,
solutions to the violence problem. Most of the bombings, and violence in
general, are the work of Sunni Arab groups, desperate to get back into power,
and avoid being brought to justice for atrocities committed during Saddams long
reign. The Iraqi solution is the traditional one; punish the entire Sunni Arab
community. Since the Kurds and Shia now have far more men under arms than do
the Sunni Arabs, this approach would result in a series of battles against
Sunni Arab neighborhoods (in large cities) and towns (out in the countryside).
These areas would be cut off from the outside world. Food, water and
electricity would cut off as well. Surrender or die. Those who surrendered would
be disarmed, taken to a border area, and forced out of the country. In some
areas, there might be massacres as well. It's an Iraqi tradition that's hard to
shake.
The other approach is less popular among most
Iraqis, and it is the American one. This involves getting Sunni Arab leaders to
tame the terrorists in their midst, and become law-abiding Iraqis. Few Kurds or
Shia Arabs feel they can trust the Sunni Arabs, but if they want to keep
American troops in the country (which keeps the Iraqi casualty rate down, and
unfriendly neighbors out), they have to go along with the current
"surge" campaign. This has resulted in two interesting developments.
First, many more Sunni Arab leaders are switching sides, coming over to the
government, and joining the fight against the Sunni Arab terrorists groups (a
mélange of nationalist and religious
fanatic organizations, plus al Qaeda and other foreign factions. ) Sunni Arab
militias are not much more effective against the terrorists (who are certainly
more fanatical, a major military advantage in the Arab world), than the Iraqi
security forces. But these new alliances have led to more information about
where the terrorists hang out, and this has resulted in the greater use of
American smart bombs. So far this year, about 250 have been used. That compares
to the 229 dropped for all of 2006. In Afghanistan, where the number of
terrorists is much lower, and the tips more numerous, nearly a thousand smart
bombs have been used so far this year. Iraqis have also adapted to the use of
smart bombs, and civilians are more quick to get out of the way when terrorists
invade, and take over, their homes. Thus while the smart bomb use has more than
doubled this year, the number of
civilian deaths from these weapons is only up about 25 percent (that's
about fifty people so far this year). In both Afghanistan and Iraq, the
terrorists try to use civilians as human shields. Understandably, the civilians
are reluctant to cooperate.
Militarily, U.S. troops are unstoppable. But
American military success is not what will bring victory in Iraq, it's the
willingness of Iraqis to stop killing each other. Ultimate success is a quiet
Iraq and American troops going home. But the Sunni Arabs have had a real hard
time living with the idea that they are no longer in power. However, four years
of getting hammered by U.S. and, increasingly, Iraqi, troops, has caused a very
visible shift in attitudes. But it's difficult to predict if, by September, the
vast majority of Sunni Arab communities will have gone over to the government.
Some towns and neighborhoods have no local leaders, and can easily be taken
over by a few dozen terrorists. These areas face destruction as the U.S. and
Iraqi troops work their way through the Sunni Arab communities in and around Baghdad.
This makes clear another sad fact; Arabs are not about to take charge of their
own lives, and fates, in the same way Westerners do. There's too much fatalism,
and belief in "it's Gods Will," rather than taking action, that makes
things happen. This makes it difficult for economic growth, democracy and good
government to take root, but does allow terrorism and tyranny to flourish.
Because of all this, the West, and even the Turks (who ruled the region for
centuries) have tried to look the other way, and just ignore this mess. But now
that Islamic terrorists are bringing their murderous ways to the West, and it
can't be ignored. But just paying attention and getting involved is not a
guaranteed solution.