February 28, 2025: For over 50 years the Assad clan ruled Syria and strived to dominate the Levant region. This includes the area from the Iranian border to the Mediterranean coast and from the Turkish to the Egyptian borders. That effort evaporated in December 2024 when the Assads were driven out of Syria in less than a week. This was a major loss for Iran and a victory for Israel. Iran and Israel had been at war for decades, with Syria serving as their base of operations. Without a presence in Syria Iran could not maintain any pressure on Israel.

With a presence in Syria Iran was able to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. With that supply line severed, Israel was able to diminish Hezbollah and Hamas influence in the region.

Shortly after the 2001 terror attacks on the United States, Iran sought to take advantage of a distracted America by establishing a weapons supply route from Iran to Lebanon and Gaza. The Assad clan would handle most of the details and be rewarded for their assistance.

When Hafez Assad, the founder of the dynasty died in June 2000, his son Bashar succeeded him. At that point Syria became a more devout ally of Iran. This meant Iran felt confident enough to ship more weapons, including ballistic missiles and rockets. This made it possible for Bashar Assad to carry out attacks throughout Israel. He never did, but Israel considered Iran-backed Syria a major threat.

Then came the 2011 Arab Spring rebellions throughout the Middle East. This triggered civil war in Syria that did not end until the Assads were expelled in December 2024. This terminated years of Syrian Iranian cooperation. It also cut the land supply route from Iran to the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

The links between Assad Syria and Iran became stronger. Iran expected Hezbollah to help keep the Assads in power in addition to maintaining control over southern Lebanon and the Israeli border.

When the Syrian Civil War erupted in 2011, as part of the Arab Spring, a new period of Syrian Iranian relations developed. Hezbollah forces in Lebanon became more involved in Syria and began to take on a more direct combat role in Syria as the Assad regime government began losing control.

Hezbollah supported Assad with a well-armed and well-trained force of Iran backed fighters. Iran expected Hezbollah to expand Iranian influence in the Levant. Iraqi Iran backed Shia militias also fought in support of the Assads in Syria.

Originally, the Syrian Army began to transfer many of its weapons warehouses to more secure facilities under Hezbollah control in Lebanon to ensure rebel forces could not get their hands on vital resources. While Assad’s objective may not have been to directly arm Hezbollah as part of this process, the build-up of the group’s weapons arsenal was inevitable.

The extent of Iranian smuggling of weapons into Syria was made public in 2023 following a 7.8 magnitude earthquake that shook the Levant. Iran was able to transfer weapons into Syria using humanitarian aid shipments as a cover.

Syria has served as a key element in Iran’s plan to dominate the Levant. Iran did not put up a stronger defense of the Assads because of a series of Israeli airstrikes that devastated Iranian weapons stockpiles and arms production facilities. By the end of 2024, Iran was out of Syria and Israel was going after the Hezbollah remnants in southern Lebanon as well as surviving Hamas fighters in Gaza.

This was the end of Iranian efforts to attack enemies using local groups beholden to Iran for cash and weapons. In 2024 Iran attempted an intervention with its own forces by launching over 300 hundred drones and ballistic missiles at Israel on April 13th. This was in retaliation for an April 1 Israeli air strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria that killed two senior Iranian military advisors. Iran retaliated with an unprecedented direct attack on Israel using missiles and drones launched from Iran rather than just using the usual local Iran-backed militias.

Israeli air defenses, American aircraft and warships, British aircraft and Jordanian aircraft and air defenses offshore destroyed all of the Iranian drones and missiles headed for inhabited areas in Israel. The only damage done occurred at an Israeli air force base in southern Israel. The damage was described as minor and there were a few civilian casualties, mainly from the debris of intercepted drones and missiles falling to the ground.

After their attack was concluded, Iran said that their retaliation was over. The implication was that if Israel retaliated it would be an unjustified act war. Iran might just appeal to the UN and world opinion to declare Israel the aggressor. Israel retaliated and destroyed most of Iranian air defense systems as well as the factories that produced key components for rockets and missiles. Iran was unable to detect or resist this attack, which was humiliating.