December22, 2006:
The results of the December 15 elections are in, and the "pro-
Ahmadinejad" candidates lost. This means Ahmadinejad's enemies have
more power, and there is open talk of calling early presidential elections to
remove Ahmadinejad. This is not just people angry at Ahmadinejad's mouthing
off, as there are is array of factions opposed to Ahmadinejad. These include
corrupt clerics (most of the corruption in Iran is at the hands of clerics who
have controlled the economy since the 1980s), who fear Ahmadinejad's
anti-corruption rants (which is a large component of Ahmadinejad's popularity.)
While Ahmadinejad is an anti-Semitic, paranoid, delusional Iranian nationalist,
he is also an able administrator who is not corrupt. That's unusual in Iran
(the administrative ability and lack of corrupt behavior.) Ahmadinejad has
enemies, and they are not all reformers.
December
20, 2006: While European nations cannot agree on what kind of sanctions to use
against Iran (to stop Iran's nuclear program) the banking and export sanctions
already in place are hurting. For example, Iran cannot raise the billions of dollars
it needs to import equipment (and consultants) to upgrade its oil industry. For
example, Iran does not have enough refineries, and has to import 40 percent of
its gasoline. As a result of that, gasoline is rationed, which annoys the
average Iranian no end.
December
19, 2006: The Saudi Arabian government claims that Iranian support for several
militias in Iraq has resulted in a "state within a state," with these
private armies of pro-Iranian gunmen operating largely independently of the
Iraqi government. Saudi Arabia now threatens to openly aid Iraqi Sunni Arabs if
the Iraqi government does not control the Shia Arab militias (which have been
active in murdering Sunni Arabs, and driving others from the country.) Iraqi
Shia Arabs, and Iran, hold Iraqi Sunni Arabs responsible for keeping Saddam
Hussein in power, for the 1980s war with Iran, and for decades of killing and
oppressing Kurds and Shia Arabs. In effect, Saudi Arabia is threatening to go
to war with Iran, via support for anti-Iran Sunni Arabs in Iraq.
December
17, 2006: President Ahmadinejad is running into hostile audiences when he meets
with university students. Over the last two years, Ahmadinejad has used his
Islamic conservative police and militias to beat and imprison students who
protested government policies. That shut up the students, for a while. Now the
students are acting up again, and it's only a matter of time before Ahmadinejad
orders his thugs to strike back.
Ahmadinejad
got himself a lot of publicity by hosting a two day International Holocaust
Deniers Conference. This is another aspect of anti-Semitism that has been
popular in the Islamic world for centuries. It's all part of the Islamic custom
of avoiding personal responsibility and blaming all your problems on external
forces. This is dangerous stuff, as it influences policy making, and can lead
to tragic decisions. While Iran is not a major military power, it has supported
terrorist groups that have killed thousands of people. Ahmadinejad and his
delusional rants are not harmless. Ahmadinejad wants nuclear weapons, which
could make his delusions even more destructive.
December
16, 2006: The government is criticizing Saudi Arabia over security measures
taken to insure that no spies or operatives are hidden among Iranians going to
Mecca for the Hadj (pilgrimage to Islam's holy places). Iran has also begun
floating the idea that Shia should control the holy places. For a long time,
that issue has been off the table, but now it's back in play, and implies
religious justification for an Iranian invasion of Saudi Arabia.
December
15, 2006: There was heavy turn out, over fifty percent of eligible voters, for
the national elections (to choose local officials, and members of the Council
of Experts, the group of senior clerics that have veto power over anything the
government does.) Like the last election, the clergy used their veto power to
exclude any reform-minded candidates. All the people running for office are
"approved" religious conservatives. But the candidates have been, for
the most part, identified as "pro- Ahmadinejad" (loony-tune radical),
and "anti- Ahmadinejad" (more rational radical.) During the last
elections, most voters stayed home in protest to the clergy blocking anyone,
but Islamic conservatives, from voting. But now many voters are coming out to
vote for "anti- Ahmadinejad" candidates, as a form of
protest. The government is not amused.