December 30, 2007:
U.S. sanctions, via
the banking system, have begun to hit Iranians where they live. The Arab banks
that provide credit to Iranian importers of consumer goods, are having their
credit cut off. This means shortages of consumer goods inside Iran, and more
anger directed at the government, not the United States. Some $8 billion worth
of consumer goods a year are moved across the Persian Gulf, from the Arab side
to the Iranian side. The Iranian government has made itself a lightning rod for
blame because of its continuing attempts to control the way Iranians live. This
year, there have been crackdowns on dress codes (especially for young,
middleclass college kids) and access to alcohol, parties, Western music and
films. This sort of thing may be the ultimate cause of a violent revolution,
more so than the loss of other freedoms (press, expression and fair elections.)
December 28, 2007: In Iraq, U.S. troops
killed eleven Shia Arab militiamen, who were accused of working for Iranian
radicals. American and Iraqi troops have been hunting down and killing or capturing
Iraqi and Iranian terrorists with increasing success. The Iranians have
apparently decided not to escalate this little war. Back in Iran, the radicals
who have supported Iraqi Shia groups attacking the Americans, are now on the
defensive. Years of efforts by the radicals has not produced much. The Iraqi
Shia are still largely hostile to taking any orders from Iran.
December 25, 2007: While the government has backed off on support
for anti-American terrorism in Iraq, support for the Taliban in Afghanistan is
another matter. Iran appears to have accepted defeat in Iraq, but still
believed the Taliban had a shot in Afghanistan. This is not popular in Iran,
because people remember the years of anti-Taliban propaganda, which simply
reminded everyone of the widespread atrocities the Taliban committed against
Shia Afghans.
December 22, 2007: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is getting
criticized more frequently, and more savagely, about the sad state of the
economy. Inflation this year has been 19 percent, and the religious leaders who
control the economy, appear indifferent to the problems. Ahmadinejad got
elected two years ago on promises to deal with the economy, and he obviously
hasn't.
December 17, 2007: Al Qaeda number two
guy (and real brains behind the organization) Ayman Al Zawahiri denounced Iran
in a video. Zawahiri, an Egyptian, is angry that Iran has backed off from its
support of Iraqi Shia terrorist attacks on U.S. troops. But U.S. commanders
find that Iran is still sending weapons, money and trainers to pro-Iran Shia
militias in Iraq. Those militias, however, have stopped most of their attacks
on U.S. troops, largely because the Americans are hard to kill, and shoot back
with deadly efficiency. The Shia militias have better luck with Sunni Arabs,
although they have to be cautious. Too much violence brings in the police, army
or, worst of all, the Americans. The Iranian government has come to accept that
Iraqis don't like to fight the Americans. This attitude has spread to the
Iranians, who talk big, but back off if the American troops growl at them. The
Iranian government apparently believes that fighting the Americans, or even
threatening to, is not the best option.
Russia delivered at least 80 tons of
nuclear fuel for Iran's first nuclear power plant. This enriched uranium is not
enriched enough for a nuclear weapon. The Russian delivery also makes it unnecessary
for Iran to continue enriching uranium. But Iran wants to continue with this
anyway, even though that means there will always be a suspicion that uranium is
being enriched to a higher level, that would make the stuff useful for a
nuclear weapon.