December 16, 2007:
The CIA announcement, that
they believe Iran stopped its nuclear program in 2003, had some interesting
side effects. First of all, many intel experts don't believe the report, mainly
because it is based on slender evidence. If true, it shows that Iran was also
deceived into believing that Saddam was trying to develop nuclear weapons. For
Iran, the war with Saddam had not ended. Saddam, and the Iraqi Sunni Arabs he
led, were still seen as a major threat to Iran. Once the Americans took out
Saddam, it made sense to ease back on the nuclear weapons effort. The
"moderate" Islamic radicals were never willing to do anything that
would threaten Iran's very existence (nuclear war with anyone would do that.)
But the extreme Islamic radicals, as represented by president Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, openly talk about destroying Israel. The older religious leaders
would tend to do something like shutting down the nuke program, once the
immediate threat was eliminated, to avoid tempting the radical radicals from
doing anything self-destructive.
The CIA nuke report contained some other
bombshells, as far as Iranians are concerned. One was "Operation Brain
Drain," which encouraged and assisted Iranian scientists and weapons
technicians to get out of the country and go live somewhere else. Most educated
Iranians need little encouragement to get out, and away from the religious
police state and high unemployment. That the CIA has a program that helps
people escap annoyed a lot of Iranians because they had not been contacted by
the CIA yet. Meanwhile, the economy continues to stumble. Inflation is up
again, from 17 percent earlier this year, to 19 percent. This, and
the seemingly endless persecution by the religious dictatorship, has finally
united the many factions in Iran that oppose the un-elected government. The 21
parties in the coalition contain some that are Islamic conservatives, giving the
coalition some protection from persecution. The Islamic conservatives in the
coalition are also able to lobby the senior clerics to allow all candidates to
run, not just those approved by Islamic conservatives.
Iran still has lots of Arab enemies, mainly the Sunni
Arab states across the Gulf, who see Iran as a threat. The Iranians see
themselves as the natural and traditional leader for the region, and that's
exactly the problem as far as the Arabs are concerned. A recent meeting
of the Gulf Cooperation Council (a Sunni Arab group) insisted that there can be
no peace with Iran until Iran withdraws from small islands claimed by both
Arabs and Iranians (and held by force by Iran).
Meanwhile, Iran's overseas espionage effort is
having a rough time. Neighboring Azerbaijan recently sentenced several men to
prison, on charges of being Iranian agents and plotting to overthrow the Azeri
government. About a quarter of the Iranian population is Azeri, and there are
factions within the Azeri community who would like to merge the Azeri portions
of Iran with Azerbaijan. The Azeris are Turkic, while the ethnic Iranians
are Indo-European. Fortunately for the Iranians, many Azeris are found among
the senior clerics running the current government. In Europe, Iranian spies,
especially those passing as diplomats.