December 29,2008:
Ethiopian invited a group of Puntland government leaders and tribal
elders to come to Ethiopia to discuss matters of mutual interest. One solution
for the Somali pirates would be a few thousand Ethiopian peacekeepers clearing
out the port towns and villages the pirates use as bases. Ethiopia isn't eager
to do anymore peacekeeping among Somalis, but will do so to control border
security (a lot of Somalis live in Ethiopian border areas), or secure its
access to the sea. Ethiopia uses ports in Djibouti for all its imports and
exports, and the growing Somali pirate menace is making that seaborne trade
more expensive and less reliable.
December 28,
2008: the U.S. is being cagey about placing heavy sanctions on Eritrea.
Eritrea's role in stirring Somalia's chaos is only one reason. The brief but
ugly border fracas between Eritrea and Djibouti signaled a new level of
belligerence by the Eritrean government. Rumors of internal troubles within
Eritrea make "tailored sanctions" attractive if the U.S. concludes
the internal frictions make the current regime more vulnerable to economic and
political pressure. That's tricky diplomacy. Eritrea has earned its reputation
as a "hard case" resistant to international political pressure and
sanctions regimens. That said, the "hard case" may be dealing with
internal fissures.
December 20,
2008: The Ethiopian government said that it planned to have its peacekeeping
troops out of Somalia by the end of 2008. Ethiopian military units are
reportedly preparing supply points along the road from Mogadishu to Baidoa (in
Somalia).
December 16,
2008: An Eritrean rebel website reported
that one of the "big gripes" among Eritrean military commanders and
senior government officials is Iseyas
Afawarki's insistence on personally selecting "government
administrators" and military commanders for Eritrea's "administrative
zones." The rumors are just that, rumors, and there is a lot of
speculation about what is going on, but the gist of the beef is Afawarki's
making leadership selections based on personal loyalty. Eritrea is a
complicated place. Tribe, clan, and region play significant social (and hence,
political) roles. Afawarki may have jailed "too many cousins" or
neglected to balance regional and clan appointments -- again, that's
speculative, but don't dismiss it a a source of aggravation. Eritrea is also a "military
society" that values soldier skills and physical courage. Cronyism
undermines military effectiveness-- and Eritrea's "tough case"
warriors know it.
December 14,
2008: Eritrean rebel sources claim that the Eritrean government is dealing with
a "military mutiny." Rumors started circulating as early as December 8 that
Eritrean air force officers had decided to oppose the government. Afawarki has
supposedly held a series of meetings with military commanders since the mutiny
rumors began.
December 1,
2008: The Ethiopian government accused Eritrea of supporting Somali Islamist rebel
attacks on forces loyal to Somali's Transitional National Government and of
attacks on peacekeeping forces in Somalia. Ethiopia is preparing to withdraw
its forces from Somalia. Somalia has its own extensive troubles, but it is also
a battlefield in Ethiopia's and Eritrea's proxy war.