Congo: Update October 2024

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October 3, 2024: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues trying to cope with its many major economic problems. Congo’s enormous natural resources, particularly mining operations, are potentially very profitable but have never been fully exploited due to constant corruption and armed conflicts. The eastern regions of the country, abundant in valuable ores, continue to attract various local armed militias either seeking these resources for themselves, or to be paid not to interfere with anyone else who tries to do so. This ongoing instability hampers economic development and deters investment.

Corrupt mining contracts, signed with China under former President Joseph Kabila, have made the situation worse. These contracts are currently under audit, revealing extensive wrongdoing and how badly all that contributes to economic uncertainty. President Félix Tshisekedi’s efforts to address these issues and reduce corruption continue, but the path to a stable and prosperous economy remains unlikely.

Politically, the DRC is making slow but notable progress. President Félix Tshisekedi’s ascent to power in 2019 was very different from his predecessor Joseph Kabila. DRC was mismanaged by Kabila from 2001 until 2019. Kabila’s tenure was marked by attempts to perpetuate his rule through corruption and the exploitation of ethnic divisions, leading to widespread chaos and civil unrest.

Tshisekedi, in contrast, has been a reformer who is trying to dismantle the corrupt system Kabila left behind. Tshisekedi was able to deal with Kabila’s allies in parliament and the judiciary by obtaining support from the United Nations and donor countries. These foreign supporters and suppliers gave up on change until Tshisekedi came along and actually implemented government reforms.

On the diplomatic front, DRC continues having problems with China and the numerous contracts signed by Joseph Kabila. These contracts were made possible by large Chinese bribes paid to Kabila and the resulting deals left DRC with little royalty income. Now Tshisekedi is auditing those Kabila mining contracts. These audits revealed significant corruption, leading to tensions with China, the nation that benefited most from the corrupt Kabila deals.

Tshisekedi has allies in the international community that support his anti-corruption efforts and reforms. This international backing is crucial for the DRC as it seeks to stabilize its political environment and stimulate economic growth.

The military situation in the DRC remains precarious, particularly in the eastern regions of the country. Despite efforts to establish peace, multiple tribal and political factions’ militias, in addition to a growing number of bandits, continue to operate with impunity. The UN’s novel approach in 2013 of deploying a combat brigade with a robust mandate to eliminate rogue militias had some success, but the region remains volatile.

These ongoing ethnic divisions and various armed groups perpetuate instability and violence, making the Congo one of the bloodiest and least reported conflicts of the 21st century with over six million fatalities. This unrest is not confined to the east but is also present, albeit to a lesser extent, in separatist-minded regions such as the southwest.

President Tshisekedi knows what DRC needs and is wading through multiple economic, political, diplomatic, and military problems that must be resolved. Tshisekedi’s reforms and anti-corruption efforts are a start. Continuing these reform efforts to a successful conclusion is not a sure thing. The continued international community's support is essential for Tshisekedi’s efforts to implement effective and lasting reforms. There is much internal and international opposition to the reforms. Local warlords and China are the chief obstacles and Tshisekedi is concentrating on them.

All this began when diplomatic and local opposition persuaded the incumbent, since 2001, President Kabila to stop trying to become a president-for-life. Kabila tried to revive the one-party dictatorship based on corruption and exploiting ethnic divisions. From 2001 to 2019 President Kabila and his father, who was president from 1997 until his assassination in 2001, had grown up opposing that sort of thing but here it was again. Kabila was supposed to leave office after the 2016 elections selected a new president. He could not run again and was unable to get the constitution changed. He was forced to allow elections at the end of 2018 but was able to rig the vote to get someone willing to cooperate with the corrupt system Kabila wanted to keep going. Félix Tshisekedi, the new president, was a known reformer who maneuvered Kabila out of office. Tshisekedi successfully took on Kabila and his powerful parliamentary coalition. Tshisekedi did this with help from the UN and donor countries that backed efforts to oust Kabila and his corrupt deals with China.

The misdeeds of Kabila were the reason Congo was facing widespread chaos and a civil war that is made worse by the ongoing ethnic divisions. Solutions have been sought since the 1960s and in 2013 the UN tried something novel, a special combat brigade of peacemakers. This brigade was given a license to kill, and kill as often as needed, to eliminate the last few rogue militias operating in the east. This solved many of the peacekeeping problems there, at least temporarily. Despite that, multiple tribal and political militias, plus an increasing number of bandits, continue to roam the eastern border area, perpetuating the bloodiest and least reported war of the 21st century with over six million dead. There is similar but less intense unrest in other parts of the country, especially the separatist minded southwest.

The Congolese government also discovered that it had to cope with the continuing corruption and lack of order in the east and southwest. The reason was always money, the millions of dollars available each year to whoever has gunmen controlling the mines that extract valuable ores and allow the stuff out of the country. Congo is finally emerging from this deadly chaos. Elsewhere in Central Africa the Burundi civil war threatens to reignite because the current president is trying to defy the constitution and become president-for-life. In the Central African Republic years of chaos, following the overthrow of a corrupt and incompetent dictator, evolved into another Moslem versus Christian and non-Moslems in general conflict.