August 1,
2008: Military intelligence is getting
better at finding FARC camps. This is a combination of aerial reconnaissance, electronic
eavesdropping and an informant network on the ground. This enables the air
force to bomb the camps, quickly followed by ground troops swarming the ruins
for more information, and maybe a prisoner or two. The government is getting
better at finding these camps, and FARC has not come up new ideas to keep
themselves hidden.
FARC
leaders have refused an offer of exile, an offer the government thought would
be attractive. The government offered a peace deal that allowed the FARC
leaders to go to Europe, or whoever would have them. Actually, some of the FARC
leaders are in favor of this option, at least that's what intelligence reveals.
But most of the FARC leadership (several dozen men) want to stay. These are
wealthy men, with millions of dollars overseas, but they are seeing their drug
profits threatened by getting tagged as an international terrorist (and drug
producing) organization. The FARC leaders have seen how these deals can
eventually come apart as victims seek revenge, and get amnesties revoked. So
the FARC brass are trusting in their guns, and opting for fighting to the
death. And there's still plenty of money to be made, over $200 million a year
for FARC.
July 31,
2008: In Europe, police are paying more
attention to local FARC agents. In Spain, the chief FARC operative in Spain
(who apparently looked after financial matters) was arrested. The Spanish
operative belonged to an international charity (an NGO, or non-governmental
organization) that actually served to help move FARCs money around. Colombian
intelligence has penetrated this overseas FARC network, and is passing names,
and crimes, to European police. Colombian intelligence is also letting police
in neighboring nations know who FARC operatives are, and what they do.
Successful police operations in Colombia are driving the drug trade to
neighboring countries, so even Venezuela is arresting drug-related FARC
operatives. While Venezuela feels ideologically connected to FARC, no one wants
anything to do with the criminal sidelines (cocaine and kidnapping). Colombia
always stands ready (with evidence and legal papers) to extradite these FARC
minions, and, increasingly, the foreign nations are willing to get rid of these
cocaine traffickers. The larger intelligence haul has also brought with it more
action from the U.S. Treasury Department, that pursues the international banking
and commercial connections of the drug gangs.
The
nations trade surplus surged to $223 million for June, up from $90 million for
the same month last year. The many defeats of FARC, and the other drug gangs,
over the last six years, are most visible in the economic growth. One of the
big problems with sustaining this growth is resettling the three million rural people
who became refugees of the fighting against the drug gangs over the last few
years. This involves dealing with the landmines that FARC, and other drug
gangs, freely plant in territory they control.
The
defeats FARC has suffered over the last few years has had consequences for the
cocaine business. In short, Colombian cocaine now represents 54 percent of the
world supply, versus 90 percent six years ago. In the first three months of
this year, 74 tons of cocaine were seized. In the past six years, over 2.5
million acres of coca have been destroyed, mostly by aerial spraying. The drug
gangs have come up with many ways to deal with this, but the most effective
technique is to move the coca growing and cocaine production to an adjacent
country.
July 25,
2008: FARC made a big deal of freeing
eight kidnap victims to the UN. But the eight men had recently been grabbed
while they were travelling on a northeastern river, and the rebels quickly
discovered that their captives came from poor families and would never be able
to pay any kind of ransom. FARC is desperate for money, since cocaine production
is moving to adjacent countries, and the rebel base camps are being forced to
move farther away from population centers. Thus there are fewer potential kidnap
victims who can pay a decent ransom. FARC has lost half its people since
president Uribe came to power, and it's mostly about money. If you can't meet
the payroll, your gunmen wander away.