July 3,
2008: FARC is falling apart at both
ends, with its high command infiltrated by government intelligence agencies,
and the lower ranks demoralized and surrendering or deserting in growing
numbers. The recent rescue of fifteen high value FARC hostages showed the
world, and the FARC leadership, how much the government knew about the inner
workings of FARC, especially how the senior FARC leaders communicated with
subordinates. It's not like the FARC leadership couldn't see this coming. FARC
has lost three of its seven most senior leaders so far this year, in many cases
laptop computers and other electronic files were captured. FARC seriously
underestimated what the government could do with this stuff. Now the FARC high
command is in a panic, and the FARC rank-and-file are even more demoralized.
For the last few months, FARC has been losing over 500 people a month to
desertions (mostly) and casualties (including people getting too ill to
continue because of the harsh life in the bush). FARC strength is down to
8,000, and falling, mainly because recruiting is becoming difficult. A decade
ago, FARC has nearly 20,000 gunmen on the payroll. The drug gangs are getting
the best recruits these days, and the gangs are now starting to move against
FARC, to reverse the process that, over the last decade, had enabled FARC to
become a major factor in the drug business (by either pushing the drug gangs
out, or forcing the gangs to pay "protection" money to the FARC. This process
is tempting the more successful FARC commanders to just drop all the FARC
political nonsense, and concentrate on being a drug gangster. When it comes to
money and politics, most people view the latter as a means to obtain the
former.
July 2,
2008: The army pulled off a spectacular
commando operation that resulted in the release of fifteen prominent hostages
(including three Americans and former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt)
and capture of several mid-level FARC leaders. The operation was based on using
captured documents, and interrogations of recently captured or surrendered FARC
members, to successfully send a false order, allegedly from the new FARC
commander, for the FARC unit holding the fifteen hostages, to march them to a
nearby NGO (non-governmental organization) operation, and board helicopters that would carry the
hostages to the new location. Once in the air, the FARC guards were disarmed by
the commandos (posing as FARC operatives) and arrested. The shocked hostages were
then told that they had been rescued. This will become one of the textbook
examples of how to carry out a high-risk, big payoff type operations.
June 27,
2008: Unable to oust their archenemy
from office via the ballot box, president Uribe's political foes have
apparently gotten to the Supreme Court judges. Bribing politicians and judges
is an old problem in this part of the world, and it is often used as a way to
get opponents removed from the political scene. The latest attempt against Uribe
is the Supreme Court declaring his 2006 re-election illegal. Uribe called for a
referendum on the matter, or a new election. While Uribe has a 70 percent
approval rating with the voters, he is less popular with most politicians.
Uribes crackdown on FARC and the drug gangs has cost a lot of politicians and
judges a lot of money. Uribe's successes have also been embarrassing for public
officials who have been around for a while, and have long complained that "nothing
could be done."
June 24,
2008: Resumption of diplomatic ties with
Ecuador has been put off. Ecuador's leftist president was caught supporting the
FARC earlier this year, when Colombian troops raided a FARC camp just across
the border in Ecuador. Laptops with very incriminating email and documents were
captured, but Ecuador president Rafael Correa vacillated between apologies and
new pledges to bring down the non-leftist government in Colombia. Correa has
serious economic and political problems at home, so bad-mouthing Colombia
provides a useful distraction. Colombia is not sure Correa has really stopped
providing aid to FARC, and is willing to risk loss of trade ($1.5 billion a
year in exports to Ecuador, about half as much in imports) with its neighbor
until the matter is resolved.