April 18,2008:
American diplomatic and military officials in Afghanistan believe that al
Qaeda in their area has become more dangerous than al Qaeda in Iraq. The U.S. government
still believes Iraq is the main battle, even though the terrorists are on the
run there and suffering heavy losses. In Afghanistan, or, actually, across the
border in Pakistan, al Qaeda has established bases it was unable to maintain in
Iraq. Some of the terrorist camps in Pakistan have been there since 2002, but
al Qaeda, admitting defeat in Iraq, has sifted people, cash and energy to
Pakistan and Afghanistan. The terrorists are having a very different experience
on each side of the border. In Afghanistan, the Taliban and al Qaeda are
betting beaten. High losses, and lost influence, mark the past few years
operations in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, there is much less police and military
influence with the terrorists, and the tribal areas along the border have
become a rest and rebuilding area for the Taliban and al Qaeda.
The
victories in Afghanistan come largely because of the 70,000 U.S. and NATO
troops there. The Afghan army only has 70,000 troops. Well trained, by regional
standards, the soldiers are used all over the country. The 60,000 national
police are less well trained and led, actually, many are corrupt and inept. While
about a third of the foreign troops are not allowed to fight, those that do,
however, are unstoppable. The Taliban cannot win by running, and if they stand
and fight, they die. Al Qaeda thinks they can win using suicide and roadside bombs.
This strategy failed in Iraq, mainly because of the large number of Iraqi
civilians killed. The terrorists are killing lots of Afghans the same way in Afghanistan,
and with the same result. A recent suicide bomber killed 24 worshippers in an
Afghan mosque. This does not go over well with public opinion. The really bad
news is that the most dangerous enemy in Afghanistan is the tribes and warlords,
who have dominated the region for thousands of years.
On both
sides of the border, many pro-Taliban tribes are negotiating with the
government to stop the fighting. But the more radical Taliban are linking up
with the growing al Qaeda organization and going into the terror business. Most
of the tribesmen want to get away from battles they can't win, and make some
money. The drug trade offers quick cash, and more economic progress than has
been seen in this part of the world for a long time.
Afghanistan
will send troops and pilots to India for training. India, which has decades of
counter-terrorism experience, will show Afghan officers and troops techniques
that have worked in defeating Islamic terrorists and tribal separatists. India
will not send troops to Afghanistan, but it already has security guards there
to protect Indian aid workers (particularly those building roads and other
infrastructure projects in the countryside.) Taliban attacks on these Indian
projects has enraged India, not intimidated them. Indians are resented, and
even hated, by Afghan religious conservatives. These attitudes result in actions
like the recent Afghan ban on Indian soap operas. These shows are very popular
on Afghan television, but enrage Islamic conservatives. That's because the daily
episodes largely depict non-Moslems (most Indians are Hindus, a polytheistic
religion that devout Moslems consider "pagan"). Bans on Indian media (movies,
videos, magazines, as well as TV shows) are common in Afghanistan, and often
are ineffective. Eventually bribes, or heavy demand, defeat the religious
opposition.