October 10, 2025:
In 2020, Russian military strength ranked third behind China and the United States. Russia had nearly a million active-duty troops and about 12,000 tanks, most of which were older models. By 2025, Russia remained number three, but three years of war in Ukraine had destroyed most of its tanks, killed or wounded about a million soldiers, and caused over a million military-age men to flee the country. Ever-growing Western economic sanctions have weakened the economy, and by 2025, nearly all national cash reserves had been spent to keep the economy afloat. Between now and 2030, Russian and Western economists agree that the Russian economy is in bad shape, a condition worsened by the government’s shift to a war economy, which neglects civilian and infrastructure needs to support the war effort.
Even Russian government and business leaders agree that another five years of sanctions and war in Ukraine will cause substantial, possibly long-term damage to the economy. The West wants Russia out of Ukraine for sanctions to be lifted. Putin cannot afford to keep them in place. He is trying to determine how much occupied Ukrainian territory he must surrender to revive his economy. The Ukrainians want all their territory back and are only willing to consider reducing the hundreds of billions in reparations they demand for property destruction and Ukrainian lives lost. So far, about 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died, along with at least 12,000 civilians.
Economically, Ukraine can outwait Russia. Several hundred billion dollars in military and economic investment have come from the West, and this investment continues to flow.
The Ukrainian economy never faltered during the war. In the first six months of the invasion, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 29 percent. In 2023, growth was 3.9 percent, followed by 2.9 percent in 2024, and between 2.5 and 3.5 percent in 2025. After that, annual growth is expected to be 3–4 percent per year.
Western investments will continue because Ukraine and its NATO supporters agree that sustained economic and GDP growth is best for Ukraine, as is the visible defeat and continued sanctions on an economically ravaged Russia. The sanctions will be lifted as Russian forces withdraw from Ukrainian territory and stand by as Ukraine joins NATO. This makes another Russian attack on Ukraine unlikely, as attacking one NATO member prompts every other NATO member to join in the defense. Russia has already seen this in action, as NATO came to the aid of a nation preparing to join NATO.
Russia justified the invasion by claiming it felt threatened by more of its neighbors joining NATO. However, Russia’s actions demonstrated the effectiveness of NATO in combat for the first time, as NATO support proved vital to Ukraine’s victory. This was the first instance of NATO aiding a candidate member. It’s a lesson all NATO members hope Russia absorbs and understands.