August 5, 2024: The Ukraine War is now in its third year and, by most standards, the Ukrainians are winning. A major factor in their success is the nearly $200 billion in military and humanitarian aid received since Russia invaded in early 2022. While Americans and Europeans were generous with their material aid, these nations have not sent troops, as many would have done if Ukraine were a NATO member. One reason Russia invaded was to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. The invasion had the opposite effect because the NATO factor in the Russian decision to invade led members to realize how important NATO was in deterring attacks by hostile nations. Ever since NATO was formed in 1949, its purpose was to deter a Russian attack. In that respect NATO was a success. Russia made no secret of its desire to keep Ukraine out of NATO and that decision backfired. Because of the war, NATO is actively preparing Ukraine for NATO membership.

If Ukraine had been a NATO member in 2021, Russia would not have invaded because it would have meant going to war with the entire NATO alliance. NATO can muster a much larger military force than Russia can handle. The combined military strength of NATO members amounts to 3.3 million troops, 22,000 aircraft and 2,200 military ships.

Since Ukraine is not a NATO member, NATO nations are under no obligation to send their soldiers to fight the Russians in Ukraine. Even when it is suggested that NATO members sent their soldiers to fight in Ukraine, most NATO nations oppose doing so.

A recent survey found that all NATO members continue to oppose sending soldiers to Ukraine, with the 26 percent of Swedes willing to do so being the highest of all NATO members. The least willing NATO member was Greece, where only four percent of voters supported sending soldiers to Ukraine.

Since Ukraine is not a NATO member, European nations had an excuse for not sending soldiers to Ukraine. Once the fighting stops, Ukraine can join and benefit from other NATO nations being obligated to send troops as well as aid should Russia attack again.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is aware of this Ukrainian NATO membership angle and plans to keep the war going indefinitely to prevent Ukraine from joining. This tactic turned out to have a major flaw. Keeping the war going would mean Russian troops would have to remain in Ukraine to provide garrisons in Ukrainian territory Russia currently occupies. Pull Russian troops out and the Ukrainians will move in and reoccupy and reclaim their lost territory. Currently Russia occupies 161,000 square kilometers of Ukraine. This is about 27 percent of Ukraine. Ukraine suffered similar losses in population, mainly because of Ukrainians fleeing the country to avoid the combat and major disruptions to the civilian economy.

Ukraine is the first major war in Europe since the end of World War II in 1945. NATO was formed in 1949 to prevent another major war. That worked for NATO members but not for Ukraine which was not a member but wanted to be one.