January 18, 2025: American naval strategists are seeking a solution to the problems presented by the potential widespread use of drones by and against naval forces. This is not a theoretical problem but a reality. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian drones forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw to the eastern shore of the Black Sea. Sevastopol was no longer a safe place to be, and Russian ships could no longer launch their Kalibr cruise missiles without risking attack by Ukrainian drones. The presence and aggressive use of the drones means that Ukraine’s grain corridor has been kept open despite Russia’s threats to interfere. Beyond symbolic significance, the corridor holds critical economic importance for Ukraine and contributed over 5 percent of GDP growth in 2024 because of the grain shipments.

The aggressive and successful use of Ukrainian drones against the Russian Black Sea fleet was unprecedented in the history of naval warfare. Not only were these drones tactically successful but financially as well. For example, new frigates cost about $1.5 billion each. That much money can also pay for 5,000 drones. Destroyers cost twice as much as frigates. The frigates and destroyers are high seas ships that can travel all over the world. The drones operate in coastal waters although some of the larger drones can operate up to a thousand kilometers from where they were launched. These drones carry video cameras and satellite-based communications systems to collect information and, in peacetime, do so without fear of attack. Severe storms are another matter, but any storm damage will be broadcast as it is happening, at least until the video cameras or communications equipment is disabled.

Commercial cargo ships can carry hundreds of armed drones equipped with satellite communications so operators anywhere in the world can control them. These drones can be unloaded at sea and sent to carry out attacks on targets in the area or move to a nearby harbor and remain tied to a dock until needed. The only maintenance is keeping the drone batteries charged. These drones are a radical new weapon for naval warfare and the war at sea will never be the same because of the success of Ukrainian drones in their victorious campaign against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Initially the Ukrainian water-going drones were Sea Baby, Mother, and MAGURA. At the end of 2023 Cossack Mother, top speed of 100 kilometers an hour, entered service. Manufacture of these drones is done in underground facilities to avoid Russian missile and guided bomb attacks.

Sea Baby carrying 850 kg of explosives was used in the mid-2023 Kerch Bridge attack. MAGURA carries 320 kg of explosives while Mamai carries 450 kg. These drones are no longer used just for delivering explosives against a target, they can also be used for reconnaissance when equipped with video cameras that broadcast what they see back to the drone operator. Some drones have been armed with small rocket launchers or surface-to-air missiles. Malyuk has a range of over 700 kilometers, which means they are suitable for operations on the high seas. Endurance is about 60 hours, and top speed is over 70 kilometers an hour. MAGURA has similar characteristics. Mamai was used in the long range attack at the distant naval base at Novorossiysk on Russia’s Black Sea eastern, which is a thousand kilometers from Crimea.

Ukraine has been developing subsurface drones since 2022 and in early 2023 the first one, the Toloka2 TK-150 entered service. This drone was 2.5 meters long and equipped with a sensor mast that remained above the surface for navigation and to identify targets. Toloka2 can also carry a small explosive warhead. More recently, Ukraine developed the larger Marichka drone that is 6 meters long and one meter in diameter.

Ukraine builds 96 percent of its drones in Ukrainian factories. The other four percent are sent by NATO countries. In 2024 Ukraine produced about 125,000 drones a month. In 2025 production is shifting to include over 30,000 long range drones to attack targets deep inside Russia.

To put these drone attacks in perspective, here is a list of Russian ship losses in the Black Sea since the Russians invaded Ukraine in February 2022:

March 2022-Ukraine used anti-tank missiles and armed drones to destroy three patrol boats and inflict heavy damage on two. Later in March a Russian naval base was attacked, sinking a landing ship and damaging other ships that were able to leave the base. One of these ships was on fire and Russia eventually sank it to prevent the munitions on board from exploding. Russia later raised that ship, made temporary repairs on the hull and towed the ship away to where the damage could be repaired. A Russian corvette was damaged and towed away to be repaired.

April 2022-A Russian cruiser, the Moskva, was damaged and eventually sank after being hit by land-based Ukrainian anti-ship missiles. Moskva was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet.

May 2022-An armed drone was used to sink a Russian assault boat. A nearby Russian landing craft was also sunk by an armed drone.

June 2022-A damaged Russian corvette was towed away to be repaired in a Russian base. Ukraine used two anti-ship missiles to sink a Russian rescue tug.

October 2022-Ukraine used drones to attack and damage a Russian minesweeper.

May 2023-Ukrainian drones destroyed a Russian intelligence gathering ship.

August 2023-Ukrainian drones attacked and damaged a Russian landing ship near the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk in the eastern Black Sea. Because of this, Russia stopped using Novorossiysk even though it was nearly a thousand kilometers east of Crimean. Ukrainian drones operating that far east convinced Russia that the base was no longer safe to use. Russian ships dispersed to even more distant Black Sea ports.

September 2023-Ukrainian warplanes used long-range British guided bombs to attack a Crimean naval base at Sevastopol. A Russian landing ship was sunk and a submarine in drydock was damaged beyond repair.

November 2023-Ukraine used cruise missiles to attack a Russian shipyard in Crimea to damage a Russian corvette so severely that the corvette was beyond repair.

December 2023-Ukraine used cruise missiles to destroy a large Russian landing ship docked in a Crimean port. A little later in December Ukrainian drones and air strikes sank a Russian patrol ship.

February 2024-Ukrainian drones attacked and sank a Russian corvette based in Crimea. Later that month Ukraine used drones to attack and damage a Russian landing ship off the coast of Crimea.

Ukrainian naval drones and land based missiles destroyed over a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and forced the survivors to take shelter at Russian ports over a thousand kilometers from Crimea. While Russia still occupies Crimea, the area is under siege by Ukrainian naval drones and land based missiles. Soon Russia will no longer be able to supply Crimea because of this. The Kerch Strait bridge from Russia to Crimea is in bad shape and can only allow limited truck traffic. By the end of 2024 Russia had withdrawn all of its ships from Crimea and shut down their ship repair facilities. Ukraine has the means to demolish what is left of the bridge whenever they want to. This will happen when Ukraine decides to blockade Crimea and force the Russians to abandon the peninsula because they cannot supply it.