December 1,2008:
The recent terrorist carnage in India reminds everyone that India has
been one the major victims of terrorism of late. Last year, Indian suffered over
a thousand dead from terrorist attacks. Over 2,000 died in 2006. This carnage
is exceeded only by Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. While Islamic terrorism, as
in Mumbai, was a major source of deaths, it was not the only one.
The major
source of Islamic terrorism in India is the Pakistani backed campaign to drive
Indians, particularly non-Moslem Indians, out of the disputed, by India and
Pakistan, province of Kashmir (actually Jammu-Kashmir, as the lower portion of
the state, Jammu, is largely Hindu.) Kashmir, on the other side of a mountain
range from Jammu, is largely Moslem, and
Pakistan believes all of Kashmir (Pakistan invaded and seized northern Kashmir
in the late 1940s) should be theirs. Twenty years ago, Pakistan decided that terrorism
was the only practical way to get Kashmir back. India was more powerful
militarily, and had beaten Pakistan in every war between them. The terrorist
groups, that have bases and training camps in Pakistani Kashmir, not only send
terrorists across the border into Indian Kashmir, but have also been
responsible for about two-thirds of the deaths, from Islamic terrorism, in the
rest of India. It was apparently Kashmir based terrorists who carried out the
recent Mumbai atrocities. There are several separate terrorist groups operating
in Kashmir. These include; Lashkar-e-Taiba (apparently the organizers of the
recent Mumbai murders), Jaish-e-Muhammad, Harakat ul-Jihad-I-Islami and Harakat
ul-Mujahedeen (the last two formerly operated in Afghanistan against the
Russians during the 1980s). There have been several thousand Islamic terrorists
active in Kashmir (on both sides of the border) since the late 1980s. The
numbers are kept down by the deaths of most terrorists who get into Indian
Kashmir. The Pakistani based terrorists has also caused the growth of similar,
but much smaller, groups inside India (which has 150 million Moslems). The
Kashmir terrorism campaign has largely failed, and the number of active
terrorists there has been dwindling over the past few years. This has
apparently played a part it carrying out attacks elsewhere in India. Only some
parts of the Pakistani government back these terrorists, as most Pakistanis
realize that too much Pakistani based Islamic terrorism inside India could
trigger a major war with India. Since both nations now have nuclear weapons,
this could get very ugly. The Islamic terrorists don't care, as they are on a
Mission From God, and whatever happens is God's Will.
Tribal
separatists in northeast India are another major source of terrorist deaths.
The northeastern tribal territories only became part of India when the British
colonial government departed in 1947. The tribes resented this, as well as the
growing flood of migrants from other parts of India. The terrorism was directed
largely at these immigrants. There used to be over 5,000 active and armed
separatists, but counter-terror operations, and an amnesty program, have
reduced the number to less than a thousand. Many of the separatists have
devolved into criminal gangs and bandits.
The third
source of terrorism is in eastern India, where communist (Maoist) rebels seek
to establish a communist dictatorship, in order to resolve the social and
economic inequities in the region. There are 5-10,000 armed Maoists out in the
countryside, where they battle counter-terrorism forces and locals who violently
disagree with the Maoists goals and methods.
India uses
local police, a special force (165,000 members of the Central Reserve Police
Force), the army, and several intelligence agencies to battle their terrorism
problems. The Foreign Ministry has also been useful because of its efforts to
get other nations to recognize these terrorist organizations as
"international terrorists", and thus subject to sanctions and
prosecution overseas. This has caused Pakistan increasing problems. The "Kashmir
belongs to Pakistan" cause is very popular inside Pakistan, making it
difficult for Pakistan to crack down on Pakistani terrorists that carry out
operations inside India, and sometimes elsewhere in the world as well.
The backlash
from the Mumbai atrocities, and Islamic terrorist attacks on the Pakistani government
is putting more pressure on Pakistan to crush its domestic Islamic radical
groups. This is particularly true with the Taliban in Pakistan. This group is
just the most recent manifestation of violent Islamic conservatism in
Pakistan's tribal areas. Pakistan has always tried to compromise with domestic
terrorist groups, but the recent Islamic violence in Pakistan, Afghanistan and
India is forcing Pakistan to confront Islamic terrorists, and deal with the
problem once and for all. That won't be easy, as a large minority of Pakistanis
support the Islamic militants.