February 11, 2008:
An example of how grim things are for al
Qaeda, and other Sunni Arab Islamic terrorist groups in Iraq, they have
radically changed their tactics. The only area where the Islamic terrorists
still have any strength is in northern Iraq, just below the Kurdish controlled
region. There, and in western Iraq, the terrorists have begun to issue warning
to civilians before a bomb goes off. These attacks are usually directed at the
security forces or foreign troops. It's a big inconvenience to warn local
civilians, because that makes it clear to the people being attacked that something
is coming. The Islamic terrorists are also making fewer attacks on the Iraqi
police, who tend to be Sunni Arabs in this part of the country. Attacks have
been shifted to the Army (which is largely Kurdish and Shia) and the Americans.
The Islamic radicals have also stopped killing or abusing civilians who do not
adopt a sufficiently conservative Islamic lifestyle. This is painful for the
Islamic terrorists, because the main reason for their violence is to establish
a conservative Islamic lifestyle, and enforce it.
These measures have caused fewer Sunni
Arabs to turn on al Qaeda. But there are other reasons for Sunni Arabs to
support al Qaeda around northern cities like Mosul, where Kurdish attempts to
drive all the Sunni Arabs out of the area continue. Many of these Sunni Arabs
were brought in by Saddam in the 1990s, to replace Kurds that Saddam had driven
out of the area (which contains nearly half of Iraq's oil.) These Sunni Arab
"colonists" (as the Kurds call them) moved north because they were poor and
Saddam told them they could take over the homes and farms of the displaced
Kurds. But even that wasn't enough to keep these Sunni Arabs friendly with al
Qaeda. The Islamic terrorists had to clean up their act. This is likely to make
matters worse for the Sunni Arabs up north. If al Qaeda remains active, the
government may give in to demands by local Kurds and Shia Arabs, and allow all
the Sunni Arabs to be driven out of the region. For years, the Islamic
terrorists ignored public opinion. That turned out to be a major error.