September12, 2008:
In the first six months of
this year, Al Qaeda carried out 28 attacks in Iraq, killing 125 civilians. That's
in sharp contrast to the first six months of 2007, where there were some 300
attacks and over 1,500 dead civilians. What made the difference was the growth
of information on who and where the terrorists were. This was something that
had been going on for over three years, and it hit a critical mass a year ago
as U.S. forces gained enough traction (in terms of knowing who and where the
terrorists were) to go in and strike a devastating blow.
.
Counter-terror
operations in Iraq are increasingly concentrating on chasing down specific
terrorists and their organizations. The amount of intelligence residing in
databases, plus the daily flow of new information makes it possible to track
terrorist cells and chase after them with high confidence that they will be
caught. There are still a lot of Islamic terrorists out there in Iraq, but now they
have to spend most of their time on OpSec (operational security, making sure
that they, or their bomb making workshops, are not discovered.)
Every night
in Iraq, about a dozen known bad guys are hauled in. Some of these guys give up
their buddies, or incriminating documents or other evidence (often
fingerprints) will do it. For the last three years, U.S. troops have been
fingerprinting every suspicious character they have come across. The guy they
turned lose three years ago for lack of evidence, may be on a wanted list today
because his prints were found all over some warm weapons or bomb making
materials. Prints can even be lifted off some fragments of exploded bombs.
The army and
marines have been doing the same thing police forces and corporations have been
doing for over a decade; taking data from many different sources and quickly
sorting out what all the pieces mean. It's called fusion and data mining, and
it's a weapon that is having a dramatic impact on what many thought was an
unwinnable war.
The final
factor in this trend was the parallel growth of raiding and command techniques.
American troops have developed organization, equipment and tactics that enable
them to rapidly and safely (for both the raiders and suspects) go after
suspects in dense residential areas (or farms in rural areas). You don't hear
much about this, because these raids do not generate casualties or the kind of
violence that grabs headlines. American commanders and headquarters have also
learned how to plan and execute these raids very quickly (sometimes within
minutes of new information being discovered.) This means, that after a
terrorist hideout is raided, information found there can generate additional
raids in less than an hour. The new raids often catch terrorists who have not
yet heard of the earlier raid that turned up the data putting them on the American
radar. Speed is a weapon, and it takes years to develop a superior amount of
it.