August 19,2008:
A Thai-style surge campaign, and
change in counter-insurgency strategy, has lead to more than 50 percent reduction
in violence in the first 6 months of 2008. Terrorism over the previous 4 years
was threatening to get out of control, with some areas becoming no-go zone
areas.
In 2004,
there was a dramatic upsurge in the violence perpetrated by Islamic terrorists
in the three southern provinces ("Deep South") of Thailand which
border Malaysia. The population of these three provinces is 1.8 million and
Muslims make up around 75% of the population whereas the rest of Thailand is
95% Buddhist.
From January
2004 until December 2007 there had been average of 160 terrorist incidents
(assassinations, bombings etc) per month in the Deep South, but this reduced
significantly to less than 60 incidents per month in the first 6 months of
2008. The number of killed or injured had gradually increased from 120 per
month in 2004 to 200 a month in 2007, but this has halved to 100 per month in
the first 6 months of 2008.
The dramatic
drop in terrorist incidents and number killed or injured did not happen
immediately after the military staged a coup in September 2006. The coup leader
was mainly concerned about the return of the deposed democratic government and
diverted resources and attention away from the Deep South to the capital
Bangkok. The military budget almost doubled, but this was mainly spent on
traditional military purchases like new Swedish Gripen fighter jets which were
of little use in the Deep South. The
result by the middle of 2007 was an increase in violence with 72 people being
killed per month compared with 53 before the coup.
Nevertheless,
after the coup, there had been a continued increase in troop numbers, raids and
detention of suspected terrorists, and a more consistent security policy
compared with what existed under the deposed government which was known for its
hard line approach. However, it was not until a new army chief (the coup leader
reached retirement age in September) was appointed in October 2007 that we saw
a greater increase in numbers. There are now over 100,000 security personnel in
the Deep South.
The main
reason for the drop in the violence was a change in counter-insurgency strategy
with a more unified command structure. No longer were security personnel
confined to the barracks and being on the defensive. Patrols became more
regular and larger in number. As most of the terrorists operate in cells of 8
or less, the increased number of troops on patrols has meant that when the
security forces have been ambushed, they have the numbers to fight back. For
example, in May 2008, there were 18 ambushes on such patrols, but security
forces only suffered one casualty and 8 injuries. On the other hand, the
security forces themselves killed 25 terrorists in the first 6 months of 2008.
Raids with
hundreds of personnel were also conducted in major terrorist strongholds and
areas where cordoned off while houses and people were searched. Instead of
arbitrarily detaining large numbers of villagers for 7 days at a military base
for questioning and then for months at re-education camps, forensic equipment
was now used to test for explosive residue and fingerprints were checked on the
spot. Those who were not involved were released which has lead to better
relations with the local community. Tip-offs started to increase and security
forces now regularly find caches of weapons and training camps on raids.
Whether a
corner has been turned or the progress can be maintained is still open to
question, but there is no doubt there has been a dramatic drop in the violence.
-- Bangkok Pundit