March 11, 2025: Until late 2024, an Iranian could drive unimpeded from Iran to Lebanon. This route marked the much desired Iranian Shia Crescent. By late 2024 that had all changed. The Assad government was replaced by a new one that does not assume Iran is a useful ally. The Iranian Shia militia Hezbollah was destroyed and its key leaders killed by the Israelis. In addition a series of Israeli airstrikes destroyed nearly all the Iranian supplied weapons in Syria as well as missile manufacturing operations in Iran, along with the plants that made the solid fuel rocket motors. The Iranian air defense network was also destroyed as well as some Iranian-supplied stockpiles of rockets and missiles in Yemen. These were used by the Iran-backed Houthi militia to attack shipping in the Red Sea headed for the Suez Canal. Americans and British airstrikes and warships also attacked the Houthi infrastructure. Israeli aircraft can regularly attack Houthi resources. American B-2 bombers are also participating. Suez canal traffic has returned to normal with the decline of the Houthi threat.

There are still some Hezbollah remnants left. Drug operations in eastern Lebanon are still operational. Hezbollah has long been active in the hashish and cocaine trade. The billions of dollars earned by drug operations is managed by a small number of Hezbollah members in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar. That money can be used to rebuild Hezbollah. America, European and most Persian Gulf nations want the Hezbollah treasury eliminated. That will be difficult to do, though Israel has done a fair job of destroying Hezbollah’s financial infrastructure in Lebanon. Hezbollah money managers in Qatar have been dispensing and concealing their billions through late 2024 as the main Hezbollah organization in Lebanon was being taken apart. The United States no longer tolerates Qatari relationships with Iran and Hezbollah. Qatar has been told to sever its Iranian and Hezbollah ties or face sanctions and isolation by the U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf. None of the other Arab Gulf States are willing to defend Qatar.

Hezbollah can be reassembled by financing the fantasies of the many Lebanese Shia that desire revenge. This became more difficult after the lightning early December campaign by a reorganized Islamic terrorist organization HTS, which quickly took control of Syria and sent the ruling Assad family into a Russian exile. That means Hezbollah in Lebanon no longer has a land connection to Iran via Iraq and Syria. Iran was the primary supplier of weapons and IRGC/ Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps technical advisors to Hezbollah. The IRGC is an elite security organization that guards the religious dictatorship in Iran while creating and supporting pro-Iran groups worldwide. Growing popular unrest in Iran makes it difficult for the IRGC to spare manpower to help rebuild Hezbollah.

It is possible for the new Hezbollah leadership and their Iranian overlords to find ways to get the men, weapons and training together to rebuild Hezbollah. If left alone, that could take years. Israel and the many other nations hostile to Hezbollah will interfere with the rebuilding. Hezbollah will reappear, but it will not be as powerful or as expansive as its predecessor. For Hezbollah believers, that’s better than nothing.

The Israeli attacks on Iran left the oil fields and export terminals alone, along with Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. The Iranian economy is crippled and the population angry at their continued poverty. Iranians know that their government has spent nearly $30 billion to establish themselves in Syria and other Middle Eastern countries. That is all gone, along with weapons plants and air defense systems. What remains are hunger, poverty and an angry population. IRGC commanders have been warning the government that they do not have enough troops to put down widespread uprisings and a growing number of IRGC men are reluctant to kill Iranians to protect an unpopular government.

Since the 1979 revolution that overthrew the monarch and installed the religious dictatorship, everything in Iran has gone downhill. The economy is sanctioned, Israeli airstrikes have destroyed most of the military resources and overseas destabilization operations are in ruins. Iran is rated as one of the most corrupt nations in the world. GDP is declining and a growing number of talented Iranians are leaving the country.