August 7, 2024: American plans to help defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack are complicated by the fact that the United States made peace with China in 1979 and established diplomatic and trade relations. While China believed that the Americans recognized Chinese ownership of Taiwan, the Americans also pledged to aid the Taiwanese in defending their island from Chinese attack.

All this put China in a difficult position. If they wanted to reclaim Taiwan, they would have to fight for it and the Americans were pledged, by agreements with Taiwan, to help defend Taiwan. How the Americans would actually assist with the Taiwan defense is unclear. The 1979 agreement included the Americans withdrawing all their forces from Taiwan. This meant that any American help for protecting Taiwan would have to be flown in from Guam, Japan, South Korea or the American mainland. This takes time and the Taiwanese believe that it would be enough time for a Chinese invasion to put troops on portions of Taiwan.

Viewed from China, the threat to Taiwan is less impressive. Chinese military corruption continues to be a major factor in how the Chinese military operates or, more frequently, is prevented from operating effectively or at all.

In 2023 Chinese leader President Xi Jinping made the awful discovery that his navy and air force had miniscule stocks of spare parts. This alone made a Taiwan invasion impossible. In addition, the lack of spare parts made it impossible to sustain months of combat against Taiwanese holdouts and American reinforcements that would follow landings on Taiwan. Xi also discovered that corrupt officials in the Rocket Forces had allowed the loss of readiness for the hundreds of short range ballistic missiles China has assembled in coastal areas opposite Taiwan. Only 180 kilometers of sea separates the Chinese mainland from Taiwan and these missiles are supposed to deliver the first, and hopefully crippling, blow of an invasion. That is not possible because corruption in the Chinese Rocket Forces had led to maintenance lapses that rendered nearly all of those missiles useless.

Now that it is known the Taiwan invasion is impossible because of the deplorable state of these weapons and forces, there is an opportunity to fix the problems and create a force that could take Taiwan. That is not going to happen for several years, even if the Chinese admit to all the problems and actually come up with the cash and other resources needed to produce a credible invasion force. Optimistic planners believe forces could be ready by 2027. More realistic planners believe it would not be until 2030 or a few years later.

There are other problems that have to be dealt with, such as finding reliable and capable Chinese officers to replace the corrupt ones. Xi also has to deal with the bad publicity the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) has earned because of its key role in this corruption scandal. The Chinese military does not swear allegiance to China but to the CCP. Xi is the head of the CCP as well as the government so this corruption scandal might force him out of power. Xi is already in trouble because the economy has been performing poorly. A failed invasion would cause Xi’s immediate replacement. A successful invasion of Taiwan would trigger an economic disaster because the Americans and their local allies South Korea and Japan would enforce an American-led blockade of Chinese ports.

Worse, President Xi and China’s senior Communist Party officials know that China’s senior military leaders lying to them about military readiness could be one scandal too many. The Chinese people are increasingly unhappy and angry at the government for allowing economic problems to develop. The missteps, mistakes and failures of Xi have already demonstrated that China is not a great power, which is enough for most Chinese to back replacing Xi.

Meanwhile the Americans have confirmed that they will not merely initially oppose a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but that they will blockade Chinese ports for as long as it takes to force China to free Taiwan if an invasion succeeds. China has believed that they could prevent that by offering peace talks to the United States after a successful invasion of Taiwan. The Americans responded that a blockade of Chinese ports would remain in place until China withdrew from Taiwan. Sustained massive imports and exports are essential for the Chinese economy. China does not produce enough food to feed everyone at present levels, and must import a lot of oil to keep the economy going. China imports 35 percent of its food and over 40 percent of its fuel. All of this comes in by ship because the only alternative, the Russian Trans-Siberian railroad, can only replace a few percent of the goods coming in via sea. Exports would be halted by Americans economic sanctions alone because most of those exports go to the United States and American European allies.

The impact of a blockade would be felt within days and become critical within weeks. Even if the Chinese could deal with Americans surface and air forces, the US Navy has enough nuclear submarines to keep Chinese ports closed. After a few weeks the blockade will trigger massive unemployment.

China’s prior opinion of an American blockade was that it would last only a few months before ending at an international peace conference following China’s short victorious suppression of dissidents on Taiwan. Because the alternative was too horrible to contemplate.

The Chinese government seems to have begun a public relations campaign about its purported effort to prepare China for an American blockade lasting several years. The timing of this was odd as it comes 6-9 months after the 2023 discovery of China’s military inability to even attempt to invade Taiwan. Perhaps the PR campaign is an attempt to cover up the latter by providing an alternate explanation for further delay. Or it might be to educate the Communist Party and Chinese people about the fatal consequences of an American naval blockade before calling off the Taiwan invasion.

A blockade of China by the US Navy lasting several years would be fatal for the CCP and China’s unity as a country. China’s Ponzi-scheme economy exists primarily to create full employment to keep the CCP in power. 40-50 percent of China’s GDP and employment is based on exports, 40 percent of its fuel and 35 percent of its food is imported, and 99 percent of all that goes by sea.

China’s loss of the imported 35 percent of its food supply will not be immediately calamitous as most of that is used to improve their peoples’ diets, not to keep them alive. But loss of their entire meat supply, especially their treasured pork, will make them very unhappy. It’s also possible that there won’t be enough fuel to supply the wholly extravagant amounts of fertilizer China uses to increase food production to the maximum. Food rationing will be necessary within a month of the invasion of Taiwan and will start no later than three months afterwards.

China’s most critical problems in the event of a US blockade will be unemployment, food and potash, especially the latter as it is an absolutely critical fertilizer with China lacking most of what it needs. The Russians can produce and deliver all the potash China needs by the Trans-Siberian Railroad provided the two governments are on good terms. If the Russians don’t send China any potash, mass hunger will begin after a year and there will be multiple starving Chinas, none of them controlled by the CCP, within two years at most.

China will have a direct conflict between fuel needs and keeping employment up. If they accept 40-50 percent unemployment, they’ll have enough fuel because fuel needs will go down that much due to idle factories, mines and construction. But they won’t have the fuel to shift production of export goods to other products, even useless ones, to keep almost half their labor force employed.

So a US blockade means the Chinese Communist Party will suffer its most feared calamity – mass unemployment for the duration of the blockade. The CCP has acted as though that would be a regime-ending event, and we’ll find out if they’re right.

The CCP appears to concede that a US blockade would be effective. The US Navy could conduct it from several thousand miles away if it wished, far out of range of Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles. China’s navy and air force just don’t have the range to project power that far, and its navy couldn’t survive American submarines and aircraft if they try. Inside China unemployment would soon reach 40 percent. The disruption of Chinese trade would produce an economic recession in the United States and Europe. Compared to the Chinese economic disasters, the problems in America and Europe are easier to handle.

Another consideration for the Chinese is that Taiwan is currently the main and often sole source for key electronic components, including the machines used to design and manufacture these components. China, the United States and European coalitions have sought to copy the Taiwanese success in electronics and have failed. Taiwan continues to be the most prolific producer of these components and sells them at competitive prices. A Chinese invasion, even one that failed, would wreck the Taiwan electronics industry. The Taiwanese also promise that they’ll destroy those themselves upon a Chinese invasion. This would have dire consequences for the Chinese and other major economies. The other nations would be in a better position to replace the loss of Taiwan as a source, if only because a lot of Taiwanese electronics experts and managers have contingency plans to get out of Taiwan fast if the Chinese attack, and resume operations elsewhere. China would no longer be a valued customer, at least until after Chinese forces left Taiwan and paid for some or all of the damage they did.

All of this makes it obvious that China has more to lose by invading Taiwan than anyone else. That is why for decades the Chinese have threatened to invade but have never acted on those threats.

– Jim Dunnigan and Tom Holsinger