August 9, 2024: The Ukraine War, now in its third year, has been the first near peer war between nations similar in technology and military capabilities since World War II. Ukraine is the underdog because Russia has a population that is nearly four times larger. Oil-rich Russia has a GDP that is more than ten times the size of Ukraine’s. What has kept Ukraine in the war is massive military and humanitarian aid from NATO that since the war began. By the end of year this aid will total over $400 billion.

Russia is the invader and thought that the Ukrainians would not be willing to defend their independence. The Russians were wrong and Ukrainians still resist while the war becomes more and more unpopular inside Russia where people, especially military age men, question why Russia is invading a neighbor. The Russian government claimed NATO, a self-defense organization established in 1949 to protect Europeans from Russian attack, had somehow evolved into a scheme to hurt Russia. Because of that Russian leaders claim that NATO is trying to recruit Ukraine into the organization as part of an anti-Russia conspiracy.

Since the Cold War began 75 years ago and ended 23 years ago, Russian disinformation efforts have sought to portray NATO as an evil and duplicitous plot against Russia. Russian disinformation resources are vast and now many of those capabilities are being used to convince people outside NATO countries that NATO is a threat to Russia and Ukraine wants to join NATO to join this war against peace-loving Russia.

Many unexpected things did develop in Ukraine, and one of those unexpected developments was that the heavy use of UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) caused most of the casualties on land while at sea USVs (Unmanned surface vessels) damaged or destroyed most of the 26 ships the Russian Black Sea Fleet has lost so far. Conventional weapons like missiles and guided bombs accounted for some of the damage, but UAVs and USVs were responsible for most of the damage.

On land, most infantry casualties and armored vehicle losses were caused by UAVs. You’d think that armored vehicles, especially tanks, could withstand UAV attacks since none of the UAVs are carrying anti-tank missiles. UAVs don’t need anti-tank missiles when there are so many other possibilities to disable or destroy armored vehicles. That’s because some UAVs are armed with small explosive charges and guided to their targets by enemy soldiers using FPV (First Person Viewing) goggles to see what the video camera on the UAV is looking at.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are using mostly cheap, at about $500 each, quadcopter UAVs controlled by soldiers a kilometer or more away using FPV to see what the day/night video camera on the UAV can see. Adding night vision at least doubles the cost for each UAV, so not all of them have that capability. Each of these UAVs carries half a kilogram of explosives, so it can instantly turn the UAV into a flying bomb that can fly into a target and detonate. This is an awesome and debilitating weapon when used in large numbers over the combat zone. If a target isn’t moving or requires more explosive power that the UAVs can supply, one of the UAV operators can call in artillery, rocket, or missile fire, or even an airstrike. Larger fixed-wing UAVs are used for long range, often over a thousand kilometers, operations against targets deep inside Russia. Since 2022 the use of UAVs by both sides has escalated and so far about 2,000,000 UAVs have been put to work providing surveillance and attack services for both sides.

A major limitation to the expansion of UAV operations is the need for trained UAV operators. These operators need over a hundred hours of training before they are able to effectively operate these UAVs, and another hundred hours of actual use before they are able to make the most out of the system. These small UAVs are difficult to shoot down until they get close to the ground and the shooter is close enough, as in less than a few hundred meters, away to successfully target a UAV with a bullet or two and bring it down. Troops are rarely in position to do this, so most of these UAVs are able to complete their mission, whether it is a one-way attack or a reconnaissance and surveillance mission. The recon missions are usually survivable and enable the UAV to be reused. All these UAVs are constantly performing surveillance, which means that both sides commit enough UAVs to maintain constant surveillance over a portion of the front line, to a depth, into enemy territory, of at least a few kilometers.

Such a massive use of FPV-armed UAVs has revolutionized warfare in Ukraine and both sides are producing as many as they can; the Ukrainians are producing about 100,000 a month now. Military observers from other countries are reporting that warfare has undergone a fundamental change because of the widespread use of UAVs in Ukraine. Most of the infantry casualties are now caused by UAVs and soldiers often miss the sound of approaching UAVs until it is too late. This has caused fear and morale problems among soldiers who are regularly subjected to these attacks and never know when to expect an attack by these quiet and low altitude threats. Another problem with UAV attacks on the infantry is that they are much more lethal than past weapons used on infantry. Artillery and mortar shells were the real killers in World War and later wars and, together with machine gun and rifle bullets, wounded four or five infantry for everyone that was killed. UAV attacks on infantry are nearly all fatal. The UAVs are built to kill, not wound and that is a frightening proposition for soldiers exposed to the threat of UAV attacks on the battlefield.

Foreign military observers, especially from NATO countries that provide medical treatment for some of the Ukrainian casualties, are aware that this is something radically new in warfare. It is real and is happening daily in Ukraine. As a result Ukraine’s NATO allies are seeking ways to cope with these new developments that will be a problem for their troops in any future war.

Many armed forces at peace are reluctant to change, despite the evidence from Ukraine that any future war will provide the more prolific user of UAVs with a significant edge in combat.