October 21, 2024: Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Ever since then Ukraine has been struggling to get it back. In 2014 Ukrainian military officials admitted that there was no way for Ukraine to take back Crimea. The Crimean Peninsula is separated from Russia by the 4.5 kilometer-wide Kerch Strait. Maximum depth of the strait is 18 meters and Russia eventually built a large bridge across it.

Russia has known nothing besides failure in the Black Sea since the 2022 war started. Ukrainian naval drones have been quite successful in attacking and sinking or disabling Russian navy ships. So far there have been twelve attacks which resulted in damage to 12 ships, several of which were constructive total losses, and the sinking of a cruiser, two small landing ships and one missile corvette. The longest range raids have been against targets in the Kerch Strait including the eighteen kilometer long Kerch Strait bridge, which has been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian naval drones. As of late 2024 the bridge was once again partially repaired after being unusable and under repair for months. When repairs are finished, the Ukrainians attack the bridge again. The Kerch Strait bridge is a vital supply line for Russian forces in the Crimean Peninsula. Sending supplies by sea is no longer practical because of the risk of attack by Ukrainian naval drones. This leaves the Kerch Strait bridge and when that is out of commission, the only supply route is a road from Russia that is under observation by the Ukrainians, who can attack supply movements at any time.

Major problems with the Kerch Strait bridge began shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. An October 8th, 2022, explosion on the Kerch Strait bridge was apparently one of several attack plans developed by Ukrainian and British special operations personnel. This planning began back in April and several plans were developed. One involved cruise missiles hitting concrete pillars supporting the bridge. A similar attack plan called for divers to approach at night and place explosives on these pillars. In both cases the key central span would be destroyed and cut road and rail traffic for months while repairs were made. The Russians were aware of this vulnerability and, soon after their 2022 invasion, defenses around the central span were increased to defeat or disrupt missile or underwater attack. This did not deter the Ukrainians who continued to consult with their British counterparts on other plans for destroying key portions of the bridge.

In 2019 the railway link across the new Kerch Strait bridge connecting Russia with Crimea was opened for service. This enabled the bridge to move 13 million tons of freight and 14 million passengers a year. The bridge cost nearly $4 billion and was mainly a prestige and diplomatic project as it enables Russia to control the Sea of Azov. In April 2018 Russia declared that the Sea of Azov, reached from the Black Sea via the 4.5-kilometer-wide Kerch Strait, was now under Russian control.

The Crimean Peninsula, when it was part of Ukraine, was separated from Russia by the Kerch Strait. Maximum depth of the strait is 18 meters and there had long been talk of building a bridge between Crimea and the Kerch Peninsula, which is now and always been part of Russia. After Russia seized Crimea in 2014, proposals that a bridge be built turned into reality. The Kerch Bridge opened in March 2018, at least the highway part, the sturdier railroad section took longer to complete. With that Russia declared the Sea of Azov under Russian control and no foreign ship could enter with Russian permission. The Russians seized ships trying to reach the Ukrainian ports of Berdiansk and Mariupol that are on the shore of the Sea of Azov. Russia was putting these two ports out of business. Ukraine accused Russia of violating international law as well as a 1990s Russia-Ukrainian treaty that prohibited the seizure of Crimea or building the bridge and restricting access to the Sea of Azov. The problem with the bridge is that it only allows about 30 percent of the large bulk carrier ships that visit Ukrainian ports to get into the Sea of Azov. Taking down that portion of the bridge would reopen the Sea of Azov to large ships.

The October 8th, 2022, dawn attack on the bridge was only partially successful. This attack involved a special bomb weighing several tons carried by a truck crossing the bridge. It was a suicide mission for the driver and the explosives went off short of where they were intended to detonate for maximum damage. It is unclear if this was a driver error or timing error on the detonator. If the bomb had gone off at another point, three deck sections would have dropped into the water rather than one. With one span down the Russians were able to make temporary repairs and resume limited vehicle traffic within a day. The explosion did ignite adjacent railroad cars carrying fuel. The light from these fires could be seen from a long distance. The fire weakened the structure but the Russians were unsure of how much. They continued running normal rail traffic. Fully restoring the highway span is taking longer, limiting vehicle traffic until it was completed. If three deck spans had gone into the water, vehicle traffic would have been halted for weeks and limited traffic only for months. Russian leader Putin was furious about this attack and regarded it as yet another unpredictable and effective Ukrainian innovation that Russian forces were unable to cope with. If the railroad portion of the bridge collapsed, Russia was one step closer to losing Crimea to the advancing Ukrainian forces.

The rail line just to the north of the two road lines was much more important as only it could carry the vast quantities of fuel required by Russian aircraft based in the Crimea, plus the supply and armored vehicles in the Kherson area to the north. The Russians had declared the bridge essential for the defense of Crimea and the support of military operations north of Crimea. At the time of the bridge attack the Ukrainian offensive was making progress in capturing all the Russian occupied territory north of Crimea. Once that is done, the only supply route into Crimea will be the Kerch bridge. The Ukrainian advance also brought Ukrainian HIMARS trucks close enough to launch attacks on the Kerch bridge with their GMLRS missiles that have a range of eighty kilometers.

In southern Ukraine the Ukrainian August 2023 offensive to cut off Russian land access to Crimea had some success. Ukrainian forces moved past the Russian improvised field fortifications that initially slowed down the offensive. The Kerch Strait bridge was recently disabled by several Ukrainian attacks by air and sea. Ukrainian special operations troops have been carrying out raids into Crimea and Ukrainian missiles and guided bombs destroyed Russian air defense systems and other military targets there.

In September 2023 Ukraine used a British Storm Shadow air launched missile to destroy the Crimea headquarters of the Black Sea fleet. Over a hundred naval officers were killed, including several admirals. This further weakened the Black Sea fleet, which had already suffered heavy losses from a variety of Ukrainian weapons, including naval and aerial drones, as well as some anti-ship missiles. Some of the naval drones were modified to operate effectively while underwater.

The British-French Storm Shadow missile has a range of over 5oo kilometers and effective countermeasures to deal with Russian air defenses. Previously Storm Shadow and land based missiles were used to destroy most of the air defense systems in Crimea and Russia was having problems obtaining and installing new SAM systems. The September 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive involved destroying a large number of Russian air defense systems and Russia did not have the resources to quickly replace those losses. All this had made it increasingly difficult to protect warships and support vessels. Russia has sent in reinforcements from the Baltic and Northern fleets but the Black Sea Fleet is still understrength and suffering losses, especially for ships based in Crimea. Ukraine also launched attacks on Russian ships at the Russian naval base at Novorossiisk, which is east of Crimea and a major commercial port for oil exports as well as other goods. As naval bases in Crimea came under increasing attacks, Russia moved most of its remaining warships and support ships to Novorossiisk. Now Ukraine is attacking Russian ships at Novorossiisk using unmanned speed boats carrying up to half a ton of explosives. Most of these attack boats were intercepted and sunk but some got through. Similar attacks were made against the Kerch Strait bridge, damaging the bridge and reducing traffic on a vital link with Crimea.

By October 2023 the growing number of Ukrainian attacks on Crimea forced most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to move. The Ukrainians used various types of missiles as well as aerial and naval drones carrying explosive warheads to destroy military targets, including bases, ports, headquarters and airfields. While civilian targets were spared, the military facilities are a major source of employment. When these facilities were damaged, destroyed and shut down, the civilians left. Ukrainian forces were getting close to the narrow isthmus that connects Crimean to the mainland. The civilians are leaving and not many civilian visitors are arriving. As the situation in Crimea deteriorates, corruption by local officials makes matters worse. By the end of 2023 the Black Sea had become a dangerous place for Russian ships of any type.