January 9, 2025: In Ukraine Russia has found that their usual infantry tactics were not working. This is the first war Russia has fought since World War II against an equally armed and trained opponent. Russian troops have fought against irregulars in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and a few other places. In Ukraine Russia was up against trained soldiers who knew how to make attacking enemy infantry take heavy casualties. Russian commanders quickly learned that their troops were not very effective against well-trained opponents. From the start of the war three years ago, Russia has taken heavy casualties as they constantly attacked, or counter-attacked, to take and hold onto Ukrainian territory. Most to almost all of these suicidal attacks were done so troop commanders could demonstrate their obedience and due diligence in attacking to President Putin, who tends to fire or kill military leaders who do not adequately demonstrate such qualities. After three years Russia had lost a million men killed, disabled or deserted. Russia has run out of infantry, at least for such costly frontal assaults. Russia recently imported 12,000 North Korean soldiers and those won’t last long at the rate they are already taking casualties. To make matters worse the war had changed in unexpected ways.

Ukrainian troops were the first to realize that cheap quadcopters and locally manufactured fixed wing drones were more effective than guided bombs, artillery and mortars. The drones came in many varieties but the two most common were those designed to find a target and those carrying explosives that hit the target precisely. The recon and some of the attack drones had built in video cameras that transmitted video to the operator a few kilometers away. The drone operator used a headset that covered his eyes so he could see the video from the drone. The operator could look down at the control tablet he was holding to send commands to the drone. These are called First Person View or FPV drones. When there was a lot of jamming, the operator of a FPV attack drone could rely on a guidance system that switched to homing in on the selected target without any intervention from the operator. Another fix for the jamming is to use a shorter range drone controlled via a fiber optic cable. Plus, if you know where your target is, you can just give the GPS coordinates to the drone and the explosives will be delivered. The Russians also have these drones. The Ukrainians came up with a solution to troop losses during an attack. Ukraine developed a number of mobile, remotely controlled vehicles that, in conjunction with air support from drones can effectively carry out an assault without using soldiers. There are armed soldiers behind this mechanized attack, to deal with any enemy stragglers or to deal with enemy troops willing to surrender. While several of the remotely controlled vehicles used machine-guns, others laid mines and at least one of the vehicles looked for and removed enemy mines. In Ukraine most lines are laid on the surface rather than buried. This makes the mines easier to emplace and easier to clear when the war is over. The current combat use of mine clearing vehicles is proving that the concept works.

Ukraine plans to carry out more of the mechanized assaults. Russia may develop countermeasures, as they did for drone warfare, Despite that the drones are still effective, even though you lose more of them to enemy countermeasures. Starting in 2023 the proportion of casualties inflicted by drones in the Ukraine war soared to more than those inflicted by artillery, and in 2024 an outright majority of all casualties have been inflicted by drones.

Currently there is no effective defense from these FPV attack drones, and that’s why these drones cause most of the casualties in Ukraine. Over the last few decades the cost of the FPV drone systems components have come way down, while the size of these components is smaller and more reliable. Overall, the new FPV system made it a lot cheaper to inflict casualties and that had a devastating effect on troop morale. Once you saw or heard the FPV drones you either found a place to hide or became a casualty. Ukraine considers the attack drones rounds of ammunition which are cheaper and more precise than artillery shells. There is still a role for artillery when it comes to destroying structures or blocking access to a road interdiction fire. But when it comes to deliberately causing casualties, drones are the weapon of choice. That’s why Ukraine built 100,000 drones a month in 2024 and expects to nearly double that in 2025.