August 2, 2024: While NATO nations have provided Ukraine with over a $100 billion in aid, NATO has not provided any troops. Ukrainian leaders point out that without either lots more artillery ammunition and medium-range artillery missiles, or European and American soldiers fighting in Ukraine, Russia can never be forced to relinquish Crimea and other smaller portions of Ukraine they occupy. So far Russia has been able to deal with economic sanctions and enormous quantities of NATO aid sent to Ukraine. Getting Russian soldiers out of Ukraine will probably require NATO soldiers to reinforce the depleted Ukrainians to get the job done. The population of all NATO nations is nearly a billion and people and their combined armed forces contain 3.3 million troops. Not all NATO members would be willing to send their troops to Ukraine, but enough would to make Russia realize that that if they kept fighting, they would quickly lose to the combined Ukrainian/NATO forces. Russia has no similar allies to help them and Russian losses in Ukraine have already caused moral and political problems inside Russia.

Russian threats of using nuclear weapons if cornered no longer have any effect because Britain, France and the United States all have nuclear weapons and if Russia used them the response would result in Russia ceasing to exist. The Russians painted themselves into this corner and too many Russians are unwilling to participate in self-destruction to avoid defeat in Ukraine.

There is still resistance among some NATO members to this extreme measure. But it would not be necessary if Ukraine were a NATO member. Ukrainian efforts to join NATO were one of the reasons Russia gave for invading Ukraine. The Russian government sees NATO as a western plot to surround and smother Russia. NATO members consider that delusional but for the Russians such delusions are a way of life and part of their culture.

If enough force is applied, the Russians will concede. If the results of this Russian aggression are allowed to stand, it will provide Russia with justification for future land grabs. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has expressed his goal of rebuilding the Soviet Union. He considers the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991 a great tragedy. Few members of the Soviet Union agree.

The Russian Federation, one of the fourteen nations created when the Soviet Union broke up, has no intention of voluntarily rejoining even though Putin is its president, and Ukraine has demonstrated it would rather fight the Russians than once more submitting to Russian rule. The majority of Soviet citizens were never Russian. That included the Ukrainians, who Russia considers Russian enough to be conquered and forced to become Russian. That’s what the Soviet Union tried to do and it never worked, even though millions of Ukrainians died during these attempts. Trying to rebuild the Soviet Union is a fool’s errand that Vladimir Putin continues to believe in.

Putin’s illusions and imperial dreams are a major obstacle to peace in Ukraine as well as a threat to continued peace and prosperity in Russia. The Ukraine war has caused the average Russian increased economic suffering and killed hundreds of thousands sent to fight in Ukraine. Putin may say he has not lost patience in Ukraine but Ukrainians, NATO nations and a growing number of Russians disagree.