July 29,
2008:The CIA is having a hard time
monitoring nine ungoverned areas around the area, and that's a big deal in the
intel world. These "black holes" are ideal hiding places for Islamic
terrorists, and some have been found in many of these lawless areas.
The most
well known black hole is the tribal areas (Pushtun and Baluchi) along the Pakistan-Afghan
border. This place, like most black holes, has been one for thousands of years.
Alexander the Great spoke (well, complained, actually) about it 2,400 years
ago.
Further to
the north, there are vast stretches of Central Asia that would make for a
splendid black hole, except for the fact that the area is very sparsely
inhabited, and rather thoroughly monitored by some of the most effective police
states on the planet (mainly China and Russia.) You can be alone up there, but
not unnoticed. However, it's such a large area, that even the local secret
police have a hard time keeping up, and Islamic terrorists have been found,
often after being there for several years.
But off to
the west, you do have a black hole in the Caucasus, along the southern Russian
border. A really nasty place, full of bandits and roughnecks of the most vile
sort. You really need a good introduction to survive in this black hole. Many
Islamic terrorist do, but they also know that they could be sold out by
mercenary minded locals at any time.
To the
south, we have Arabia, where someone with enough cash can disappear, either in
the (expensive) comfort of one of the commercial minded Arab Gulf States, or further
south in Yemen (where smaller bribes are demanded and the cost of living is
lower.)
Africa has
several black holes. The most well known one is Somalia, which has been one for
centuries. Then there's the Congo, which could be considered one big black
hole, but actually gets more black holish the farther you get from the Congo
river. Eastern Congo has been unsettled for a long time, and southwestern Congo
(Katanga) is almost as good (as black holes go).
Just to
the north there is the Sahel, a semi desert area just below the Sahara, and
going from the Atlantic to Chad (in the center of the continent.) Nasty
climate, and the nomads have to be paid off, and watched carefully, but it all
makes for a great hideout. Hundreds ofIslamic terrorists are believed to be hiding out here at the moment.
The Sulu
Sea and Celebes (or Sulawesi) Sea, and surrounding islands (Mindanao, Bali,
Sulawesi) have long been a popular hideout for pirates and exiles of all sorts.
Still is, and because of the largely Moslem population, it's an easy place to
Islamic terrorists to blend in and disappear. The hand of government has never
been very heavy in this part of the world.
In South
American, we have the Colombia-Venezuela border, rendered lawless by a four
decade old leftist revolution in Colombia. Locals tend to keep their heads
down, and don't hassle strangers, especially strangers with guns and a bit of
attitude.
To the
north we have the Guatemala-Mexican border. Again, a leftist rebel movement on
the Mexican side, and a general state of lawlessness on the Guatemalan side,
have created the kind of place you can hide out in. Especially if you speak
Spanish and look subversive.
The CIA
has a presence in all of these areas, although inside Russia it has to depend a
bit on Russian intelligence agencies, and good will. Each of these areas is
dangerous for Americans, and local agents are usually recruited. All these
areas get a lot of attention from spy satellites and high flying reconnaissance
aircraft. But, as the saying goes, you really have to be there, on the ground,
to get an effective feel for the place. And even then, the best you can do is
observe. Going in is a major military exercise, even if it's only with
commandos.