June 24,
2008: This month, another intelligence
project in Iraq got some unwelcome attention. The mass media discovered "Task
Force Odin", and the use of manned and UAV aerial reconnaissance aircraft to
find IEDs (roadside bombs), and the people who plant them. Fortunately, most of
the important details were left out. Writing a news story, about pattern
analysis and data mining, for a mass audience, is generally not even attempted.
So the reporting about Task Force Odin concentrated on aircraft and UAVs
watching the roads for signs of IEDs, and UAVs, helicopters and gunships
opening fire on terrorists trying to set up roadside bombs. Explosions and dead bodies have long been a
mass media staple, and the lack of such action in Iraq lately has led to a
sharp decline in reporting from there. So the U.S. Army appreciated the
attention to one of their more successful programs, especially since the
reporters left out much discussion of the more important aspects.
What the
Task Force Odin stories were really covering were two very different
technologies in development. On the one hand (and more easily reported) was the
effort to provide Internet like access to live video feeds from aircraft and
UAVs. The U.S. Air Force and SOCOM (Special Operations Command) have been
particularly keen on this, and has shared the technology with the other
services, and friendly nations. The less publicized effort was Constant Hawk.
This was a U.S. Army image analysis system that's basically just another pattern analysis
system. However, it's been a very successful system. Last year, the U.S. Army
named Constant Hawk one of the top ten inventions of the year. The army does
this to give some of the more obscure, yet very valuable, developments some
well deserved recognition.
Pattern
analysis is one of the fundamental tools Operations Research (OR) practitioners
have been using since World War II (when the newly developed field of OR got
its first big workout). Pattern analysis is widely used on Wall Street, by
engineers, law enforcement, marketing specialists, and now, the military.
Constant Hawk uses a special video camera system to observe a locality and find
useful patterns of behavior. Some of the Constant Hawk systems are mounted on
light aircraft, others are mounted on ground structures. Special software
compares photos from different times. When changes are noted, they are checked
more closely, which has resulted in the early detection of thousands of
roadside bombs and terrorist ambushes. This has largely eliminated roadside
bomb attacks on supply convoys, which travel the same routes all the time. But
those routes are also watched by Constant Hawk. No matter what the enemy does,
the Hawk will notice. Eventually, the Hawk, and several other efforts, morphed
into Task Force Odin.
Constant
Hawk, like most geek stuff, does not get a lot of media attention. Mainly it's
the math, and TV audiences that get uneasy watching a geek trying to explain
this stuff in something resembling English. But the geeekery works, and the
troops want more of it. The troops like tools of this sort mainly because the
systems retain photos of areas they have patrolled, and allows them to retrieve
photos of a particular place on a particular day. Often, the troops returning
from, or going out on a patrol, can use the pattern analysis skills we all
have, to spot something suspicious, or potentially so.
A related
math tool is predictive analysis. This has been widely used in Iraq to
determine who the bombers are, where they are, and where they are most likely
to place their bombs next. This has enabled the geeks-with-guns (the Army OR
specialists) to offer regular "weather reports" about expected IED activity.
The troops take these reports very seriously, especially by those who run the
hundreds of daily convoys that move people and supplies around Iraq. If your
route is predicted to be "hot", you pay extra attention that day, and often
spot IEDs that, as predicted, were there. Usually, the predictions are used to
send the engineers and EOD (Explosive Ordnance Disposal) teams out to scout and
clean the route. It's the feedback from these guys that has brought the geeks
their reputation. If the geeks, and their tools (computers, aerial images, and
math), say there is something bad out there, they are generally right. For the
geeks, it's all pretty obvious. Given enough data, you can predict all sorts of
things, or just about anything, really. But to many people, including most
reporters, it's all still magic. Task Force Odin is the latest name for an
effort that has been going on for over four years, and traces its origins back
to World War II, and the invention of Operations Research in the decade before
that.