The Perfect Soldier: Special Operations, Commandos, and the Future of Us Warfare by James F. Dunnigan
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The Great Dying Goes Unreported
by James Dunnigan
January 10, 2009
Discussion Board on this DLS topic
January 1,
2009: Violence continues to decline worldwide. Oddly enough, the most bloody
conflicts (like Congo) get the least media coverage. Reporting tends to be
distorted by the need to
attract
eyeballs, and revenue. For years, Iraq was portrayed as a disaster until,
suddenly, the enemy was crushed. Even that was not considered exciting enough
to warrant much attention, and that story is still poorly covered by the mass
media. Same pattern is playing out in Afghanistan, where the defeats of the
Taliban, and triumph of the drug gangs, go unreported and distorted.
Worldwide, violence continues to decline, as
it has for the last few years. Violence has also greatly diminished, or
disappeared completely, in places like Iraq, Nepal, Chechnya, Congo, Indonesia and Burundi. Even Afghanistan, touted as the new war zone, was
not nearly as violent this past six months as the headlines would deceive you
into believing.
All this continues a trend that began when
the Cold War ended, and the Soviet Union no longer subsidized terrorist and
rebel groups everywhere. The current wars are basically uprisings against
police states or feudal societies, which are seen as out-of-step with the
modern world. Many are led by radicals preaching failed dogmas (Islamic
conservatism, Maoism), that still resonate among people who don't know about
the dismal track records. Iran has not picked much of the lost Soviet
terrorist support effort. Hezbollah and Hamas, the Madhi Army and a few smaller
groups, and that's it. Terrorists in general miss the Soviets, who really knew
how to treat bad boys right.
The War on Terror has morphed into the War
Against Islamic Radicalism. This religious radicalism has always been around,
for Islam was born as an aggressive movement, that used violence and terror to
expand. Past periods of conquest are regarded fondly by Moslems. The current
enthusiasm for violence in the name of God has been building for over
half a century. Historically, periods of Islamic radicalism have flared up
periodically in response to corrupt governments, as a vain attempt to impose a
religious solution on some social or political problem. The current violence is
international because of the availability of planet wide mass media (which needs
a constant supply of headlines), and the fact that the Islamic world is awash
in tyranny and economic backwardness. Islamic radicalism itself is incapable of
mustering much military power, and the movement largely relies on terrorism to
gain attention. Most of the victims are fellow Moslems, which is why the
radicals eventually become so unpopular among their own people that they run
out of new recruits and fade away. This is what is happening now. The American
invasion of Iraq was a clever exploitation of this, forcing the Islamic
radicals to fight in Iraq, where they killed many Moslems, especially women and
children, thus causing the Islamic radicals to lose their popularity among
Moslems.
Normally, the West does not get involved in
these Islamic religious wars, unless attacked in a major way. Moreover, modern
sensibilities have made that more difficult. For example, fighting back is
considered, by Moslems, as culturally insensitive ("war on Islam"),
and some of the Western media have picked up on this bizarre interpretation of
reality. It gets worse, as, some historians point out, for example, that
the medieval Crusades were a series of wars fought in response to Islamic
violence against Christians, not the opening act of aggression against Islam
that continue to the present. Thus, the current war on terror is, indeed, in
the tradition of the Crusades. And there are many other "Crusades"
brewing around the world, in the many places where aggressive Islamic
militants are making unprovoked war on their Christian neighbors. Political
Correctness among academics and journalists causes pundits to try and turn this
reality inside out. But a close look at the violence in Africa, Asia and the
Middle East shows a definite pattern of Islamic radicals persecuting those who
do not agree with them, not the other way around.
While Islamic terrorism grabs most of the
headlines, it is not the cause of many casualties, at least not compared to
more traditional wars. The vast majority of the military related violence and
deaths in the world comes from many little wars that get little media attention
outside their region. Actually some of them are not so little. While
causalities from terrorism are relatively few (usually 5,000-10,000 dead a year
worldwide), the dead and wounded from all the other wars actually comprise
about 95 percent of all the casualties. The Islamic terrorism looms larger
because the terrorists threaten attacks everywhere, putting a much larger
population in harms way, and unhappy with that prospect. But in the West, and
most Moslem nations, Islamic terrorism remains more of a threat than reality.
Current wars are listed in alphabetical
orders. Text underneath briefly describes current status. Click on country name
for more details.
AFGHANISTAN
The "Taliban comeback" has become
more of a media, than a material, success. This years "Taliban Spring
Offensive" was a bust and NATO forces spent the year going after the key
Taliban resource; heroin in Helmand province. The Taliban expected drug gang
profits, al Qaeda assistance and
Pakistani reinforcements to turn the tide. With all that, violence nationwide was
about the same as last year. Independent
minded tribes, warlords and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace,
prosperity and true national unity, than the Taliban (on both sides of the Pakistan
border). The newly elected Pakistani government finally decided to take on the
pro-Taliban tribes and various Islamic terrorist organizations. That reversed the
flow of gunmen from Pakistan into Afghanistan, with the Pakistani Taliban calling
for help from their Afghan cousins. But violence inside Afghanistan is growing,
largely because of the growth of the drug gangs, and their support for tribes
(especially pro-Taliban ones) that oppose the corrupt national government. The
foreign nations, fighting their war on terror in Afghanistan, have finally
realized that there has never been an Afghan national government that was not
corrupt, and changing that is going to be more difficult than fighting the
Taliban or finding bin Laden.
ALGERIA
There aren't many Islamic radicals left in
Algeria, and many of those are fleeing to Europe, or south into the desert and
across the southern borders into Black Africa. Despite the large amount of
uninhabited mountains and forests along the eastern coast, the police and army
have been operating there for so long that it's difficult to stay hidden. Too
many civilians are hostile to Islamic radicalism, and will phone in a tip.
Algeria has become a very dangerous place for Islamic terrorists. But some
fight on, but at lower and lower violence levels. Peace has brought with it
despair, as Algerians realize that their government is basically a corrupt
military dictatorship that uses the national oil wealth to buy enough votes to
get elected again and again. So more Algerians are fleeing, or vacillating
between despair and a desire to fight.
BALKANS
The Greater Albania Movement is driven by
part time Albanian nationalists, full time gangsters, political opportunists,
Kosovo separatists and some Islamic radicals. West Europeans got their
way, and Kosovo became independent. Serbia disagrees with that, and Big Brother
Russia offers all manner of support, and threats. But no one is willing to
resume the war, yet. No one is willing to renounce war as an option, either. Bosnia
continues to attract Islamic terrorists, despite the local government becoming
increasingly hostile to these foreign troublemakers and alien Islamic
conservatism.
CENTRAL ASIA
Dictators brew rebellion by suppressing
democrats and Islamic radicals. But not much violence, just a lot of
potential. The dictators in the "Stans" (the former provinces of
the Soviet Union that became five independent nations; Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan) have been rebuilding the Soviet era
secret police. The new dictators noted that the Soviets never had any problems
with Islamic terrorism, or any other kind of terrorism, and are going old
school on this new problem.
CHAD
Rebel movements grew and united, aided by Sudanese
backed Arab militias from across the border. The Chad government gave refuge to
Sudanese Darfur rebels. Despite all that, the government made peace with Sudan,
but not with their own rebels, who have united and vowed to win. European
peacekeepers arrived, but lacking sufficient manpower and helicopters, were
unable to do much. The unrest along the Sudan border is caused by refugees from
tribal battles in Sudan, who bring their feuds with them. Prospects for peace
are not good, although the UN says it will bring in a new batch of
peacekeepers, to replace the European ones, that will have a license to kick
ass and take names.
CHINA
The confrontation with Taiwan was dialed
down a notch as kind words and gracious lies were exchanged in the name of
commerce. A new government in Taiwan plays down independence, and China
responds with soothing words. But also China speeds up modernization of its
armed forces, but in ways Westerners have a difficult time understanding. China
has developed a major Cyber War capability, and has been using it for several
years. The targets of this, in Western Europe and the U.S., have figured this out,
and a new crises is born. China has become major secret supplier of cheap
weapons to bad guys everywhere. World class weapons are planned for the future,
some 10-20 years from now.
COLOMBIA
After over three decades, leftist rebels more
rapidly losing support, recruits and territory. Even leftist demagogue Hugo
Chavez of Venezuela pretended to drop support for the Colombian rebels, while
still providing sanctuary for them and their cocaine producing allies. The
drug gangs and leftist rebels have merged in many parts of the country, and war
in increasingly about money, not ideology. The leftist rebels are definitely
losing, but all that drug money will keep them in the game for quite a while.
CONGO
Multiple tribal and political militias, plus
an increasing number of bandits, continue to roam the countryside, perpetuating
the bloodiest (and least reported) war of the last decade (over five million
dead, and counting). Peacekeepers and army action have reduced the size of
these violent groups, but not eliminated them. However, there are fewer
places that the bad guys can roam freely. Attempts to merge rebels into the army
has not worked well. The last major problem is a Tutsi militia in the east,
which will not disarm until the government destroys Hutu militias built around
Hutu mass murderers who fled neighboring Rwanda in the 1990s. This the Congolese
government finds it cannot (and to a certain extent, will not) do. The reason
is money, the millions of dollars available each year to whoever has gunmen
controlling the mines that extract valuable ores and allow the stuff out of the
country. UN peacekeepers are criticized for not fighting more, but that's not
their job. Congolese army not up to it yet either, so there it simmers.
ETHIOPIA
Border dispute with Eritrea festers, and
invasion of Somalia bogs down in local clan feuds. The Somali force is being
withdrawn, but held on the border for a possible return. Ethiopia is accustomed
to dealing with the Somalis, something the rest of the world should study more
closely. Internally, rebellious Moslem groups are a constant threat, especially
with more active support from Eritrea. Ogaden province, right on the
Somali border, and full of ethnic Somalis, rebelled again, and was pacified again. Not a
big deal, but one more hot spot that burns up troops and scarce cash. These two
border wars have been around for centuries, and not likely to go away now.
HAITI
Technically at peace. Peacekeepers keep a
lid on two century old violence between the rich and the poor, and the criminal
and political gangs. Peacekeepers have busted up many of the gangs, and sharply
lowered the crime rate. But the government is still corrupt and prone to breed
lawbreakers and disorder. Same pattern of poverty and corruption that has
sustained chaos for the past two centuries. No good prospects of breaking the
cycle are in sight.
INDIA-PAKISTAN
After the Mumbai terrorist attacks, India is
pressing Pakistan to quit playing media games, and get serious about
anti-Indian Islamic terrorists. Meanwhile, India has to deal with religious
separatists in Kashmir, plus tribal rebels in the northeast, and Maoist
(communist) ones in between. Pakistan has Islamic radicals in the north, and
rebellious Pushtun and Baluchi tribes along the Afghan border. The
Taliban had become stronger in Pakistan, where it originated, than in
Afghanistan. The newly elected Pakistani
government tried to make peace with the Taliban and when that failed earlier in
the year, went to war with the Taliban during the Summer. The Taliban were beat
up pretty bad, and the number of terrorist attacks increased in response. Most
of these were in the tribal areas, but the Pakistanis are being forced to
confront the Islamic demons they have created. India and Pakistan both have
nukes, making escalation a potential catastrophe. As a result, recent peace
talks have lowered the possibility of war, but both sides continue an arms
race. Pakistan has always been a mess, and does not appear to be
getting better. But at least it's becoming less hospitable to Islamic radicals.
INDONESIA
Basically at peace, but separatism, pirates,
Islamic terrorists and government corruption create a volatile situation that could
get hot real fast. Islamic terrorists have been greatly diminished, as Islamic
moderates flex their traditional popularity. Aceh still has a few diehard
separatist rebels. Newly independent East Timor has been unable to govern
itself.
IRAN
The basic problem is that an Islamic
conservative minority has veto power
over the reformist majority. The supply of peaceful solutions is drying up.
After that comes another revolution. Half the population consists of ethnic
minorities (mainly Turks and Arabs), and these groups are getting more restive
and violent. Meanwhile, the Islamic conservatives are determined to support
terrorism overseas and build nuclear weapons at home, rather than improving the
economy and living standards. Unrest and terrorist violence becoming more
common, and government seeks foreign adventures to distract an unhappy
population. That is not working, and the recent slump in oil prices is creating
more poverty, and young men desperate for a solution.
IRAQ
Islamic terrorists are now a police problem.
Even U.S. troops have to get arrest warrants from a judge. Violence continues
to be down over 80 percent from the bad old days of two years ago. More areas
of the country are now at peace (as some have been since 2003.) The Sunni Arab
minority has worked out peace deals with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs. Some
Sunni Arab Islamic radicals are still active, but are in decline. Some Sunni
Arabs, who had fled the country, are returning, but nearly half the Sunni Arabs
are still gone. The Shia militias have been defeated as well, mainly by Iraqi
police and troops. Corruption and inept government are now the major problems,
with potential Iranian meddling (or even invasion) a permanent threat. The
major U.S. TV news operations are pulling out. The war is really over.
ISRAEL
Hamas succeeded in goading Israel into
striking back, in an attempt to halt the growing number of rocket attacks on
southern Israel. This will not end well for Hamas. Some Palestinians keep
trying to make any kind of peace, in order to reverse the economic disaster
they brought on themselves because of their eight year terror campaign against
Israel. Polls show that Palestinians are tired of terrorism, even though
they still support it (in order to destroy Israel, which remains an article of
faith in the Palestinian community). The Palestinian economy has collapsed, as
foreign charity was reduced because the people elected the Hamas (Islamic
terrorists) party to power. Civil war between radical Hamas and corrupt
Palestinian old guard (Fatah) has split Palestinians, but Fatah may end up back
in control of Gaza by default. Iran backed Islamic radicals (Hezbollah) in
Lebanon have revived fears of civil war up there. Hezbollah threatens to drag Lebanon into another civil war, or another war with Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli
economy booms as Israel continues its effective counter-terrorism campaign. This
annoys Arabs most of all.
IVORY COAST
An uneasy truce continues. The north and the
south made a deal over money, religion
and power, but cannot agree on how, or when, to carry it out. All this is
watched over by peacekeepers set up between the factions. A case of peacekeeping
creating a situation where there is no war, but no solution to the conflict
either.
KOREA
The recent illness (a stroke) of North
Korean leader Kim Jong Il has just created more uncertainty. Growing unrest,
corruption and privation threaten the iron control that has long kept the north
peaceful. North Korea continues to destroy its economy, in order to maintain
armed forces capable of invading South Korea and keep its own population in
bondage. Continued famine in the north has prompted China to send more and more
troops to the border to keep hungry North Koreas out. North Korean
military declines in power, as lack of money for maintenance or training cause
continuing rot. Government split into reform and conservative factions,
making change difficult to achieve. South Koreans are growing tired of the
madness that still reigns in the north, but cannot do much.
KURDISH WAR
Turkish aircraft and troops now operating on
the Iraqi side of the border, seeking to either destroy Kurdish separatists, or
push their bases further into Iraq. Iraqi Kurds have agreed to crack down on
the PKK separatists the Turks have been fighting for over a decade. Kurds
continue 5,000 year struggle to form their own country. Iran is cracking down
on its Kurds, in cooperation with Turkey. Iraqi Kurds believe they will get
control of some Iraqi oil fields, providing cash for all manner of
opportunities. But that is opposed by Iraqi Arabs and other minorities.
MEXICO
The U.S. border is like a war zone. The
passing of one-party rule, the growth of drug gangs, and increasing corruption
in the security forces, has triggered unprecedented levels of violence and
unrest. The government has gone to war with the drug gangs, and the
outcome is still in doubt.
NEPAL
Radical communist rebels succeed in
eliminating the monarchy, via an alliance with political parties. Maoists
then won control of the government, but refuse to completely disarm their
private army. All this has triggered more violence by other unhappy groups
(more radical Maoists, hill tribes, ethnic Indians).
NIGERIA
Too many tribes, not enough oil money and
too much corruption creates growing violence. The tribes and gangs (both
criminal and political) in the oil producing region (the Niger Delta) are
getting organized, and a lot more violent. The northern Moslems want more
control over the federal government (and the oil money). Local rebels
threaten loss of most oil revenue, which is getting the governments attention.
The situation is sliding towards regional civil wars, over money and political
power.
POTENTIAL HOT SPOTS
Various places where the local situation is
warming up and might turn into a war. Zimbabwe and Central African Republic are
hot right now.
PHILIPPINES
Islamic minority in the south wants its own
country, and the expulsion of non-Moslems. Communist rebels in the north fight
for social justice and a dictatorship. Both of these movements are losing and
the Moslems are negotiating a peace deal that inches closer to a done deal. The
communists are taking a beating, and playing hard to get.
RUSSIA
Rebuilding and reforming the decrepit Soviet
era armed forces continues. The war against gangsters and Islamic radicals in
Chechnya has been won, but the Islamic radicals continue to operate in other
parts of the Caucasus. Russia returns to police state ways, and
traditional threatening attitude towards neighbors. Recent drop in oil (and
other raw materials) prices seriously slows Russian rearmament efforts.
RWANDA & BURUNDI
War between better organized and more
aggressive Tutsis and more numerous Hutu tribes. It's been going on for
centuries, but the latest installment has finally ended, with the last Hutu
group in Burundi giving up, then changing its mind, but not making nearly as
much trouble as in the past. Rwanda blamed for continuing violence in eastern
Congo, as they attempt to destroy Hutu terrorists based there.
SOMALIA
A failed state that defies every attempt at
nation building. It was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes
that fight each other constantly over economic issues (land and
water). The new "transitional" government, was nearly
wiped out by an "Islamic Courts" movement (which
attempted to put the entire country under the rule of Islamic clergy and
Islamic law). When Islamic Courts threatened to expand into Ethiopia, Ethiopia
invaded and smashed the Islamic Courts. The Islamic radicals have turned to
terrorism, which Eritrea continues to provide support for. The country remains
an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in
sight, until the pirates (which have been around for a decade) became a major
problem. Now the major trading nations have to decide whether to occupy and
administer (stamp out piracy) Somalia, or pay several billion dollars a year in
ransom, insurance and security costs.
SRI LANKA
Tamil minority (19th century economic
migrants from southern India) battles to partition the island. A
long ceasefire ends and fighting has resumed. Tamils (the LTTE) are losing this
time. LTTE will not go quietly, even though they are only months away from
defeat. But not destruction, as the LTTE threatens to return to terrorism and
banditry.
SUDAN
Moslems in the north try to suppress
separatist tendencies among Christians in the south, and Moslem rebels in the
east and west (non-Arab Darfur). All this is complicated by development of oil
fields in the south, and Moslem government attempts to drive Christians from
the oil region. Battles over land in the west pit Arab herders against black
Sudanese farmers. Both sides are Moslem, but the government is backing the
Arabs. The government uses Arab nationalism and economic ties with Russia and
China to defy the world and get away with driving non-Arab tribes from Darfur.
The government believes time is on its side, and that the West will never
trying anything bold and effective to halt the violence. So far, the government
has been proven right.
THAILAND
Malay Moslems in the south are three percent
of the population, and different. Most Thais are ethnic Thais and
Buddhist. In the south, however, Islamic radicalism has arrived, along with an
armed effort to create a separate Islamic state in the three southern
provinces. Islamic terrorists grew more powerful month by month for several
years, and refuse to negotiate. Security forces persisted and are making
progress in identifying and rounding up the terrorists. Meanwhile, civil war
brews between urban and rural segments of the population, under the leadership
of political parties that differ on how the nation should be run. The minority
are elitist urbanite royalists, and they just overthrew an elected government
via massive urban demonstrations. This struggle isn't over.
UGANDA
Religion and tribalism combine to create a
persistent rebellion in the north, which was aided by Sudan. But now the
northern rebels have been worn down, and the unrest is just about done
with. Final peace deal with LRA rebels proved impossible to negotiate. Ugandan
army got permission to enter Congo to try and finish the rebels off.
WAR ON TERROR
International terrorism has created a
international backlash and a war unlike any other. These days, most terrorist
victories are in the media. On the ground, the terrorists are losing ground
everywhere. Their last refuges are chaotic, or cynical, places like Iran,
Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Gaza, the Sahel, a few of the Philippine islands, and especially
tribal regions of Pakistan (where al Qaeda is staging a well publicized last
stand). They are being chased out of Iraq, Somalia and the Philippines.
Iran continues to support terrorism in the face of much local disapproval.
Syria and Lebanon are in chaos because of Iranian subsidized factions. Gaza went
the same way. Islamic radicals are a traditional reaction to tyranny in their
region, and the inability of local despots to rule effectively. Economic and
diplomatic ties with the West are interpreted as support, leading to
attacks on Western targets that created a devastating counterattack. The result
of this in the Moslem world has been dramatic, finally forcing leaders and
people to confront their self-inflicted problems. Al Qaeda is as
self-destructive as its many predecessors. Al Qaeda suicide bomb attacks that
continue to kill civilians, continues to turn Moslems against al Qaeda in a big way. But the terrorists justify such
dumb attacks because their doctrine holds that Moslems who don't agree with
them, are not really Moslems. You can imagine how well that goes over with the
survivors, and the many potential victims. You can, but al Qaeda can't, and that
is what guarantees their demise. That will be well covered by the media,
because the Islamic terror groups have learned how to play the media. Many
"Islamic terrorists" help out, while safely on the sidelines, with
media manipulation and producing propaganda. The Internet has made these
efforts possible, and quite popular. Since all this is religion based, and
Islam is a faith that calls for world conquest and violent intolerance of other
faiths, you have a large pool of ambitious and murderous new recruits. Many
Moslems insist they do not support the "world conquest" crowd, but
few are willing to confront the maniacs head-on and denounce the killing on
religious grounds. Islam has some internal problems that Moslems will have to
deal with before all this unpleasantness goes away.
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